| People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo (left) greets Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung prior to the fifth presidential election TV debate held at MBC in Sangam-dong, Seoul on the afternoon of the 28th. 2017.4.28/News1 © News1 National Assembly Photo Foundation |
Attention is focused on the proportion of candidates belonging to the third party in the presidential election next year, which is expected to have a close confrontation between Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate and the People’s Power presidential candidate to be confirmed on the 5th of next month. This is because, rather than the possibility of immediate election, it can be a bloody race for the bipartisan presidential candidates, who will be elected within 5 percentage points (p) depending on the percentage of their votes.
A poll released by Gallup Korea on the 22nd showed that the approval ratings of the Justice Party presidential candidate Shim Sang-jung and People’s Power Representative Ahn Cheol-soo were close to double digits. Depending on whether these two runners complete the presidential election, they may inflict considerable damage to both the Democratic Party candidates and the People’s Power candidates.
According to the results of a poll conducted by Gallup Korea, an opinion polling company, from the 19th to the 21st, in the four-way virtual match (Lee Jae-myung – Yoon Seok-yeol – Shim Sang-jeong – Ahn Cheol-soo), Candidate Shim received 7% approval and Representative Ahn recorded 9% approval. In this survey, Candidate Lee was 34% and Candidate Yoon was 31%.
Also, in a four-way showdown in which the People’s Power candidate was hypothesized as Hong Jun-pyo’s primary candidate, Shim and Ahn’s approval ratings recorded 8% and 10%, respectively. Candidate Lee received 33% and candidate Hong 30%.
On the 18th and 20th, Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research conducted four surveys and the opinion poll released on the 21st showed similar results.
In a four-way virtual match involving Candidate Yoon, Jae-myung Lee 35%, Seok-Yeol Yoon 34%, Sang-Jeong Shim 6%, and Cheol-Soo Ahn 7% were recorded. found to be 8%. (For details, refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee)
According to the results of the opinion poll, a single candidate from the conservative opposition would be somewhat advantageous if a unified candidate between the People’s Power and the People’s Party was achieved, as in the previous Seoul mayoral by-election. have.
A similar pattern was observed in the last election. Ahn, who ran for the 19th presidential election, took third place with 21.41% of the votes at the time, and Shim showed off his formidable support with 6.17% of the votes.
Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in, who was elected as president, received 41.08 percent of the vote, and some analysis suggested that the winner could be reversed by simply adding the votes of second-placed Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Joon-pyo (current People’s Power) (24.08 percent) and Ahn.
First of all, Candidate Shim and Representative Ahn are intensifying their offensive by directly targeting the major bipartisan presidential candidates. It seems to be a judgment that the greater the disappointment of the voters with the candidates of the two parties, the more conducive to the vote.
In an interview with YTN Radio on the same day, Candidate Shim pressured Lee to accept the special prosecutor, saying, “I would like to ask the candidate if he has no intention of accepting the special prosecutor and robbing him of it.” Candidate Shim also had a dispute with Candidate Lee at the Gyeonggi State Auditors’ Office over the ‘specialty of Daejang-dong’.
Candidate Shim apologized for ‘Chun Doo-hwan’s defense,’ and even aimed at candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, who posted a photo of an apology to a dog on social media, he said, “I can’t even get a seat in the presidential race for a candidate who has to pass the personality cutoff. It is questionable,” he criticized.
Representative Ahn said at the top of the list the day before (21st), “The big two parties went all-in in the frame war of ‘Lee Jae-myung Gate’ or ‘People’s Power Gate’.” He criticized the power of the Democratic Party and the people.
Ahn has not made an official position on the presidential election, but speculation that the announcement of his candidacy for the presidential election is imminent is gaining strength from the political circles. The People’s Party has started preparing for the presidential election by organizing a presidential election planning team and holding a meeting this month. Politicians believe that Ahn will make a detailed statement about his future after the state audit is over.
The variable is whether it is unified. The Justice Party has a clear will to finish. It is the judgment of the passport that solidarity in the presidential election is impossible in the internal situation of the Justice Party, which has chosen a different path from the Democratic Party.
On the other hand, the possibility of solidarity with Representative Ahn and People’s Power candidate, who once considered the integration of the opposition, is somewhat fluid. A re-elected member of the Democratic Party said, “If all four candidates run for office, the ruling party may seem more advantageous, but if the opposition is united, the Democratic Party’s election strategy will inevitably change.” can come,” he said.
pkb1@news1.kr
