[농업전망 2023ㅣ젖소] Decrease in crude oil production… Forecast of 1.945 million tonnes

[한국농어민신문 이현우 기자]

A reduction of approximately 3% in the number of breeding animals
Crude oil production 1.7%YoY↓
Milk imports continue to grow
It is expected to reach 2.83 million tonnes by 2032

Due to the result of increased production costs from 2020 and the government’s effort to reform the dairy farming system, the number of dairy cows raised last year did not exceed 400,000 for the first time. This year, when the differential pricing system for each use is implemented for the first time, the number of dairy farms going out of business due to worsening dairy farming conditions is expected to fall to 378,000.

The number of dairy cows raised in 2022 was 390,354, down 2.6% from the previous year. The reduction in the number of breeding animals is interpreted to have been caused by a delay in adjusting the base price of raw milk last year and higher production costs due to the increase in the price of formulated and roughage feed, intensifying the management of dairy farms. However, as the number of animals raised per farm was 65.7, which was the same as in 2021, it appears that the number of farms that went out of business last year has increased.

Domestic crude oil production is forecast at 1,978,000 tonnes. This is a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous year. On the other hand, imports were estimated at 2,528,000 tonnes, up 0.6% from 2021. In the end, last year’s crude oil supply was expected to fall 1.6% year-on-year to 4,614,000 tonnes due to a decline in domestic production and inventory despite an increase in imports. Last year, domestic consumption was forecast to be 4,412,000 tonnes, down 0.8% from 2021, and crude oil consumption per capita was also forecast to be 85.6kg, down 0.6%.

As the differential pricing system for all uses comes into effect on January 1, the base price of drinking oil is 996 won per liter and the base price of processed oil is 800 won.

Crude oil production this year is forecast to be 1.945 million tonnes, down 1.7% from last year. This is because the number of cows being bred is expected to fall by around 3% compared to last year. If this trend continues, crude oil production is expected to fall to 185 tonnes by 2032. As a result, domestic crude oil production is declining, but dairy product imports are expected to continue to increase, with imports estimated in 2023 was 2,636,000 tonnes, up 4.3% from the previous year. This increase is expected to continue and rise to 2,832,000 tonnes by 2032.

Reporter Hyunwoo Lee leehw@agrinet.co.kr