In the Seoul mayor election to be held on June 1, a poll showed that current mayor Oh Se-hoon leads Song Young-gil, former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, by 5.8 percentage points. However, the gap between Mayor Oh and CEO Song Jeon was significantly reduced from the 11.6%p difference last week and narrowed to within the margin of error.
In a bilateral confrontation between Rep. Park Jumin and Mayor Oh, another Democratic Party candidate who announced their candidacy for Seoul mayor, Mayor Oh leads by 9.8%p, and from Mayor Oh’s point of view, it is more advantageous to face Rep. Park rather than former President Song.
People Networks Research (PNR), a polling company commissioned by New Daily, conducted a ‘one-on-one virtual match between the Democratic Party candidate and the current mayor of Seoul’ with 802 men and women aged 18 and over living in Seoul for two days on the 8th and 9th. A survey result showed that Mayor Oh Se-hoon was ahead of all Democratic candidates including Song Young-gil and Park Ju-min. However, there was a difference within the margin of error (±3.5%p) in the confrontation with Song Jeon.
First, in the virtual bilateral match between Oh Se-Hoon and Song Young-Gil, Mayor Oh showed 50.5% approval and former CEO Song 44.7%. 2.6% answered ‘there is no candidate to support’ and 2.2% answered ‘don’t know’.
‘Central area’ is the exact opposite in a week… Oh Se-hun is behind Song Young-gil
Seoul is divided into the downtown area (Yongsan-gu, Jongno-gu, Jung-gu), the northeast area (Gangbuk-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Nowon-gu, Dobong-gu, Dongdaemun-gu, Seongdong-gu, Seongbuk-gu, Jungnang-gu), the northwest area (Mapo-gu, Seodaemun-gu, Eunpyeong-gu), the southwest area (Gangseo-gu, Gwanak-gu, Guro-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Dongjak-gu) ·Yangcheon-gu, Yeongdeungpo-gu) and the southeast region (Gangnam-gu, Gangdong-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu), it is confirmed that the support tendency by region has changed significantly from last week’s survey.
In this survey, Mayor Oh Se-hoon had the highest approval rating in the northwest area and the lowest in the downtown area. △Sehun Oh 44.7% in the downtown area, Younggil Song 53.3%, △Sehun Oh 50.5% in the northeast area, Yeonggil Song 45.7% △Sehun Oh 55.5% in the northwest area, Yeonggil Song 39.1% △Sehun Oh 47.0% in the southwest area, Yeonggil Song 46.3% △Sehun Oh 54.4% in the southeast area, Yeonggil Song 41.9% in the southeast area .
In a survey last week, Mayor Oh Se-hoon had an approval rating of 66.9% in the downtown area, leading to 27.0% and 40%p ahead of Song Jeon. However, in this survey, the opposite result came out, with former CEO Song Young-gil outperforming Mayor Oh out of the margin of error.
In the northwest region, Oh Se-hun widens the gap with Song Young-gil
In the case of the Northwest region, Mayor Oh led former CEO Song by 16.4%p in this survey, but in the last survey, Mayor Oh had 50.0% and former CEO Song 44.8%, a difference of only about 5%p. After one week, the results have changed significantly. In the Northeast region, Mayor Oh and former CEO Song struggled within a margin of error in this survey, but in the last survey, Mayor Oh took the lead with 55.1% and former CEO Song 38.2%.
Next, in terms of gender, 55.1% of men supported Mayor Oh and 40.3% supported CEO Song. In the case of women, 46.3% supported Mayor Oh and 48.8% supported President Song Jeon, giving him the upper hand within the margin of error.
Arguing within the margin of error in the female class… Song Young-gil in the 20s and Oh Se-hoon in the 30s
By age, as in the previous survey, Mayor Oh received the highest approval rating among those aged 60 and over and the lowest among those in their 40s.
Among those aged 18 to 20, Mayor Oh had the same approval rating of 46.2 percent, and CEO Song Jeon had the same approval rating of 46.2 percent. Compared to Mayor Oh’s 11.6%p lead in the last survey, this is also a very different result.
Among those in their thirties, 54.4% supported Mayor Oh and 40.1% supported former CEO Song, and this result is also very different from last week. In the last survey, Mayor Oh had 47.9% and CEO Song 42.3%, which was within the margin of error. In their 40s, Song’s approval rating was 60.0%, overwhelming Mayor Oh, who had only 38.6%. Among those in their 50s, Mayor Oh was 43.9% and CEO Song 52.2%, and among those over 60, Mayor Oh was 62.9% and CEO Song was 32.0%.
Oh Se-hoon and Park Ju-min have a 9.8%p advantage in the match
In the virtual bilateral match between Oh Se-hoon and Park Ju-min, Mayor Oh received 51.6 percent of the vote and Rep. Park with 42.8 percent. By region, in the downtown area, Mayor Oh had 49.0% and Assemblyman Park 41.2%, which was different from Oh Se-hoon-Song Young-gil’s bilateral confrontation. In the northeast region, Oh Se-hun 51.8%, Park Jumin 42.2% △ Northwestern region Oh Se-hoon 53.3%, Park Jumin 38.0% △ Southwestern region Oh Se-hun 49.6%, Park Jumin 44.7% △ Southeast Oh Se-hoon 53.7%, Park Jumin 44.0%
This survey was commissioned by New Daily, and PNR conducted a wired/wireless automatic answering phone survey on 802 men and women over the age of 18 living in Seoul for two days from April 8 to 9. The subjects were selected at the rate of 87% for mobile phone virtual numbers and 13% for landline RDDs, and the final response rate was 5.0% and the sampling error was ±3.5%p at the 95% confidence level.
For a detailed overview and results of the opinion poll, please refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.
