[단독]Military, SLBM development virtually complete… 8th holder

It is reported that the military has recently succeeded in testing a submarine, the final stage of the development of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The SLBM is a representative strategic weapon launched from a submarine that is difficult to detect, and is called a ‘game changer’ that can change the game of the battlefield. With North Korea unveiling new SLBMs last year and this year, spurring the development of asymmetric strategic weapons that threaten South Korea and the US, South Korea has also become the world’s eighth SLBM holder.

According to a defense industry official on the 6th, the Defense Science Research Institute (ADD) recently succeeded in two closed tests of launching an SLBM from the Dosan Anchangho, the first 3,000-ton submarine. In particular, it is reported that the SLBM’s core technology, ‘cold launch’, which ignites the missile engine after pushing the missile out of the water with air pressure from the launch tube, has been reported to have worked successfully. An official said, “After the third and final test launch in the middle of this month, mass production and deployment will begin.” The final test launch will be held privately off the coast of the ADD Anheung Test Center in Taean, Chungcheongnam-do.

Normally, SLBM technology development proceeds in three stages: ground test launch, underwater test launch, and submarine test launch. The military, which succeeded in a ground test launch at the end of last year, completed the second-stage underwater test launch this year, using a barge instead of a submarine to launch an SLBM in shallow water. The Dosan Anchangho, the military’s first 3,000-ton submarine capable of carrying six SLBMs, was commissioned on the 13th of last month, accelerating the development of related technologies. Currently, the US, Russia, UK, France, India, China and North Korea possess SLBMs.

Military develops ‘game-changer’ SLBM, but does not disclose it… “It seems to be concerned about the North Korean stimulus”

Korea ranks eighth in the world

Recently, it is known that the military authorities succeeded in a submarine test-launch, the last step in the development of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), and it is evaluated that the South Korean military has finally secured a ‘game-changing’ strategic weapon. However, some point out that the government, which is not letting go of expectations for improvement in inter-Korean relations at the end of his term, is silent about it for fear of provoking North Korea even after completing the development of the SLBM, which is considered a key weapon for ‘independent defense’ that President Moon Jae-in has been emphasizing.

○ From the successful barge test launch to the virtually complete stage

According to a defense industry official on the 6th, the Defense Science Research Institute (ADD) began preparations for the submarine test launch on the 13th of last month, even before the first 3,000-ton submarine, the Dosan Anchang, was put into service. The naval delivery of the submarine was delayed more than half a year than originally planned due to an error in the torpedo decoy launch system, which is a submarine launch device, but it is determined that there is no problem with SLBM-related equipment such as launch tubes or core technology. It is evaluated that the fact that ballistic missiles can be developed regardless of range as the Korea-U.S. missile guidelines expired in May had a positive impact on accelerating the development of SLBM technology.

The successful barge test launch this year was similar to the actual submarine launch environment, so many analyzes within and outside the military actually said that the success of the submarine test launch was only a matter of time. However, it is reported that the military failed to test-fire the barge several times due to difficulties in applying the ‘cold launch’ technology, which is the core of the SLBM (a method in which the missile is pushed out of the water with air pressure from the launch tube and then the engine is ignited). Geun-sik Moon, a professor at the Graduate School of Political Science at Kyonggi University, who served as a submarine captain, said, “The difference from the test launch of a barge (submarine test launch) is to systematically test whether the launch system works properly when the actual launch button is pressed.”

The necessity of developing a domestic SLBM was reviewed in response to North Korea’s successful test-fire of the ‘Bukguksong-1’ in 2015. Ahn Chang-ho is equipped with six SLBM vertical launch tubes.

North Korea, which succeeded in underwater test-fire of the ‘Bukguksong-1’ in 2015 and the ‘Bukguksong-3’ SLBM in 2019, is a new model with a larger diameter, such as the ‘Bukguksong-4s’ in October last year and the ‘Bukguksong-5s’ in January this year. The SLBM was unveiled at a military parade. It is known that North Korea has virtually completed the construction of a new Romeo-class improved submarine (3,000-ton class) to be equipped with this SLBM and is about to launch it.

○ Was North Korea conscious of ‘private consistency’?

The government, which has kept the status of development of domestic SLBM technology from being completely confidential, has also been inclined to not disclose the final submarine test launch scheduled for mid-February. There are criticisms from both inside and outside the military that “the judgment that it could provoke North Korea was involved” in this regard. Although it is known that President Moon attended the test launch of the ballistic missile ‘Hyunmoo-4’, which was developed last year, it was not disclosed to the public. Regarding the success of the ground and barge SLBM test launches last year and this year, the military maintains its position externally, saying, “It is difficult to confirm the status of technology development due to the nature of the secrecy business.” In the press release of the ‘2022-2026 Medium-Term Defense Plan’ announced on the 2nd during the current government’s term, the Ministry of National Defense did not specify the development status of the SLBM in detail, but said, “We will develop a medium-sized submarine capable of precision strike that can destroy strategic ground targets at sea. We will continue to secure it and strengthen our strategic deterrence capabilities.”

Reporter Shin Shin-jin newjin@donga.com Go to reporter page>