Possibility of lowering demand for Russian energy and accelerating economic isolation
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(New York = Yonhap News) Correspondent Ko Il-hwan = It was pointed out that Russia’s policy of accepting only rubles for natural gas exports could have serious adverse effects on its economy.
The New York Times (NYT) analyzed that the purpose of the exchange rate defense was to protect the exchange rate when President Vladimir Putin announced on the 23rd (local time) that he would receive only rubles for natural gas exports to Europe.
The plan is to increase demand for the ruble, which has plummeted as foreign currency assets of the Russian central bank are frozen after the invasion of Ukraine.
In the future, companies that want to import Russian natural gas will need to secure rubles instead of dollars or euros.
In fact, after Putin’s announcement that day, the value of the ruble against the dollar rose by about 6%.
However, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) questioned the effectiveness of Russia’s ruble payment request.
The policy of receiving payments in rubles does not have much effect on the increase in demand in rubles.
This is because Russia has already made it mandatory for its energy companies to convert 80% of foreign currency received for export into rubles.
This means that the demand for the ruble itself does not change in the end whether the ruble is received directly from a foreign country or the foreign currency is exchanged for the ruble in Russia.
The WSJ pointed out that the mandatory ruble could act as a factor lowering the international community’s demand for Russian energy.
Given that it is quite cumbersome, if not impossible, for Russian natural gas buyers to secure rubles, he said, an alternative could be sought.
Timothy Ash, an emerging market strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management, said, “Energy trading with Russia has become more difficult.”
If payment is made in rubles, it is possible to reduce dependence on the Western financial system, but it has also been pointed out that it may cause difficulties in income because it cannot secure dollars.
Capital Economics economist Jason Turby said: “Measures such as the ruble payment requirement will ultimately reinforce the argument that the Russian economy will be driven into isolation from the international community.”
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