[포켓이슈] The U.S., Russia, and China ‘Ukraine Three Kingdoms’… What is Korean national interest?

(Seoul = Yonhap News) The question of whether Russia will invade Ukraine has risen to the top of the agenda.

Russia has concentrated its 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, and is willing to use Belarus as an invasion route.

The United States and the European Union (EU) are warning of strong sanctions in the event of an invasion, but Russia does not care. Rather, they are weaponizing natural gas supplies to Europe and tightening the reins of pressure.

So, why did the Ukrainian conflict arise?

It can be traced back to the 1990s, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the post-Cold War era. First, it should be noted that, amid the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the West initiated NATO’s ‘East Movement’ in earnest. With the support of the West, pro-democracy revolutions occurred in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan after 2003, and Ukraine pushed for NATO membership, and Russia took a full-fledged response.

In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to respond aggressively.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. After the declaration of Bucharest in 2008, Ukraine’s discussions on NATO accession intensified and Kiev’s approach to the West was promoted.

It also supports pro-Russian separatism in eastern Ukraine and focuses on making Ukraine a conflict zone.

There is also an analysis that President Putin drew out the ‘Ukraine invasion card’ to aim for a time when it is difficult for the United States and the EU to have a unified voice as France and Germany are in a period of regime change.

The fact that Yeonggwang Jaehyun’s voice is loud in Russia is also a point that cannot be overlooked.

Yun Ik-joong, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hallym Graduate School of International Studies, said, “The ‘US-China G2 system’ is something that can hardly hurt Russia’s self-esteem.” and analyzed.

Among these, the solidarity between Russia and China stands out. The two countries have continued to conduct joint exercises in the Black Sea as well as the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in recent years.

On the face of it, Russia and China are competing against the United States. First of all, the U.S. choice is paying attention to the Ukraine conflict. This is even more true in that the US has been focusing on China’s response to ‘global hegemony’.

In fact, when it comes to Ukraine, the rift between Russia and China is not small.

Russia, which intends to place Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and China, which intends to include Ukraine in the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, is bound to conflict. Ukraine, seeking to break free from Russian sphere of influence, is dependent on China for 14.4% of its imports and 15.3% of its exports.

China wants to expand its influence in Ukraine, but Russia is unlikely to accept it.

There are also speculations that the US will take advantage of the conflicting interests between Russia and China over Ukraine.

The question is how the Ukraine crisis will affect Korea.

First of all, given that Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, if a Russian invasion becomes a reality, food prices are expected to skyrocket, and domestic damage is inevitable. In addition, if Russia uses natural gas and crude oil as countermeasures, energy prices could soar. In any case, it seems that it will have an adverse effect on the global economy, but it is highly likely that economic pain will be aggravated in Korea as well.

Reporter In Gyo-jun, Kim Ji-hyo, Creator

kjihn@yna.co.kr

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2022/01/28 13:46 Send