10 Years On: How Brexit Has Reshaped the UK’s Economy and Politics
- The UK economy and politics a decade after Brexit show mixed growth, weakened sterling, and shifting political fortunes, according to new analysis by CNBC.
- Ten years after the 2016 referendum, the UK’s economy has grown more slowly than its European peers, while sterling has lost nearly 20% of its value against the...
- Growth: Slower than the EU but resilient The UK’s GDP growth has lagged behind the European Union since Brexit, according to CNBC’s analysis of World Bank and IMF...
The UK economy and politics a decade after Brexit show mixed growth, weakened sterling, and shifting political fortunes, according to new analysis by CNBC.
Ten years after the 2016 referendum, the UK’s economy has grown more slowly than its European peers, while sterling has lost nearly 20% of its value against the dollar. Immigration has rebounded to pre-Brexit levels, and political leadership has shifted from Boris Johnson to Keir Starmer, with trade patterns and economic confidence still adjusting to the post-Brexit landscape.
Growth: Slower than the EU but resilient
The UK’s GDP growth has lagged behind the European Union since Brexit, according to CNBC’s analysis of World Bank and IMF data. Between 2016 and 2025, the UK’s average annual growth rate stood at 1.5%, compared to 2.1% for the EU. Economists attribute this partly to reduced trade integration and supply chain disruptions, though the UK has avoided a recession.
Sterling’s decline: A weaker pound
The British pound has weakened significantly since the 2016 vote. According to CNBC’s data, sterling lost nearly 18% of its value against the US dollar between 2016 and 2025, falling from around $1.50 to $1.23. The Bank of England has cited Brexit-related trade frictions and global economic uncertainty as key factors.
Immigration: Back to pre-Brexit levels
Despite promises to reduce net migration, the UK’s annual immigration figures have returned to levels seen before Brexit. In 2023, net migration reached 606,000, the highest on record, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The government has attributed this to labor shortages and post-pandemic recovery, though critics argue Brexit’s border policies have failed to deliver on key pledges.
Trade: A shift away from the EU
UK trade with the European Union has declined, with exports to the EU falling by 15% since 2019, per CNBC’s analysis. Meanwhile, trade with the US and Asia has grown, though not enough to fully offset losses. The UK’s trade deficit widened in 2024, reaching £30 billion, according to HM Revenue & Customs.
Politics: From Johnson to Starmer
The UK’s political landscape has shifted dramatically since Brexit. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a key Brexit architect, left office in 2022 amid scandals, while his successor, Rishi Sunak, resigned in 2024 after a brief tenure. Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, now holds power, having won a landslide victory in the 2024 general election. Starmer has signaled a more pragmatic approach to Brexit, focusing on economic recovery and EU relations.
What happens next?
Economists warn that the UK’s long-term economic prospects depend on how quickly it adapts to post-Brexit trade realities. The Bank of England has signaled cautious optimism, predicting gradual growth but warning of persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, political stability under Starmer may ease tensions with the EU, though no major trade deal has been finalized.
Key figures
- GDP growth (UK vs. EU): 1.5% vs. 2.1% (2016–2025)
- Sterling vs. dollar (2016–2025): -18%
- Net migration (2023): 606,000 (record high)
- UK-EU trade decline (2019–2024): 15%
- Trade deficit (2024): £30 billion