17 Major Global Threats Could Cause Human Extinction by 2100

Humans could face extinction by the year 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment.

Seventeen Threats Ranked by Healthy Life Years Lost

To build the ranking, researchers modelled how many years in good health might be lost due to sickness, disability, or early death under current trajectories, a metric known as disability-adjusted life years, or Dalys. The commission determined that malicious use of AI—including bioweapons—and nuclear conflict carrying the risk of nuclear famine represent the most severe end-of-humanity scenarios. While the likelihood of these catastrophic events remains low, their potential severity could end humanity entirely. In the case of a nuclear conflict, explosions could inject enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and trigger widespread famine. Meanwhile, biological weapons generated by AI present similarly apocalyptic risks. An accompanying editorial published alongside the report warned that the scale of harm, if realised, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.

Beyond extinction-level events, the assessment identified 15 other major catastrophic threats capable of causing more than one billion cumulative Dalys. This broader group includes air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use, and high blood pressure. Income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy ageing also made the list. To qualify for inclusion, each threat had to demonstrate both a massive potential loss of healthy years and the existence of actionable solutions.

Interconnected Global Crises Demanding Immediate Policy Action

The 35 experts behind the commission stressed that all 17 hazards interact closely with one another and must therefore be addressed in tandem, though they emphasized that a realistic route to act exists for each. Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, stated that decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, explained that the assessment was designed to provide policymakers at both global multilateral and national levels with a clear view of the magnitudes involved so they can make a difference through timely intervention.

The report modeled best- and worst-case scenarios to demonstrate the impact of policy decisions. For instance, limiting global heating to about 1.8 degrees Celsius rather than letting temperatures reach 4.4 degrees Celsius could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost. The analysis also highlighted regional disparities: non-communicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health dominate health loss in higher-income regions, whereas lower-income areas face heavy burdens driven by factors like low educational attainment and child malnutrition.

Impending Aid Cuts and Annual Global Health Re-Evaluations

Funding shifts present an immediate danger to global health stability. Major donor nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have announced large cuts to aid spending over the past year. The commission calculated that a steep reduction or total collapse in international health aid could cause up to 1.5 billion Dalys before the year 2100, with nearly 70% of those health losses occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The region already bears the heaviest burden of childhood malnutrition.

Following this debut, the assessment will be updated annually to re-evaluate the 17 identified threats by incorporating fresh data and monitoring emerging hazards. Authors of the report urged world leaders to commit dedicated funding and staff toward anticipation, prevention, and preparation before these diverse threats escalate further into full-scale crises.