washington- The US presidential election on November 5 is not limited to the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump for the Oval Office seat in the White House, as elections will be held on the same day for the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate.
The importance of congressional elections comes not only from their direct and traditional impact on the balance of power in Washington, and what the new president may or may not do, but also because their outcome will likely matter to American political life for years to come. That comes for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is unprecedented polarization on fundamental issues like abortion and immigration.
House of Representatives
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election next November for new two-year terms.
Currently, Republicans hold a small majority in the chamber, with 222 seats compared to 213 for Democrats. The party needs 218 seats to command a majority. Given the nature of each individual constituency, this control may come down to a small group of highly contested constituencies.
Average opinion polls for the House of Representatives indicate that there are 206 seats that the Republicans are guaranteed to win, while 205 seats are guaranteed for the Democrats. That leaves 24 swing seats in strong competition that any of the contending candidates could win.
A compilation of recent opinion poll averages indicates that the Democratic Party is on track to control a majority of council seats, especially since the party needs only 6 additional seats to gain a majority and some electoral districts to be redrawn. According to the special court decision, the chances of Democrats increased, especially in two important states like New York and California.
It is worth noting that polls indicate that two Muslim Democratic representatives in the House of Representatives, Rashida Talib of Palestinian descent in Michigan’s 13th District and Ilhan Omar of Somali descent in Minnesota’s 5th District. , will be among the seats guaranteed for Democrats.
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 222 seats compared to Democrats’ 213 (Reuters)
The Senate
Democrats have a slim majority, controlling 51 seats, compared to 49 for Republicans. Elections are held for 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate, where each state is represented by two members and senators are elected for 6-year terms.
Of the 34 seats up for election next month, Democrats hold 24, while Republicans hold just 10. There are 22 guaranteed results by state and candidate nature, and 12 competitive seats remain, of which 9 are currently held by Democrats, compared to just 3 for Republicans.
Recent opinion polls show near-unanimity in the Republican leadership and expectations that the Senate majority will swing to them. They need to win at least two new seats to gain a majority in the council, with the vice president balancing the balance if two parties win 50 seats.
The council’s election experts expect Republicans to win all 10 seats now held by the party, in addition to winning the 3 seats currently held by Democrats, making it a swing between the two parties’ candidates.
At the democratic level, polls indicate that the party will win 14 of the seats it holds and will have strong contests for 9 other seats and may lose 3 seats.
The districts that will witness the Senate elections can be divided as follows:
- 14 of the 24 Democratic seats have been confirmed for Democratic Party candidates.
- 10 of the 10 Republican seats are guaranteed for GOP candidates.
- Democrats are expected to lose seats in Ohio, Montana, West Virginia and possibly Maryland and Arizona.
The Republican Party’s mission in the Senate elections is made easier by the fact that most of the states – which are contested and currently held by Republican members – voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, and it was easy to focus from here. Electoral strategy on polls that voted for incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden and later shifted to Republicans.
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The math is also easier for Republicans to win this chamber, as they need to pick up one seat (if the next vice president is a Republican) or two seats (if the representative is a Democrat).
Republicans have a slight chance of winning at least 3 seats in the state:
- Montana: Where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is running for a seat.
- West Virginia: Where independent Senator Joe Manchin is retiring.
- Ohio: Senator Sherred Brown suffered from a state that turned Republican, and Trump won it in 2016 and 2020 and is likely to win it this year.
Senate and House race results are more than 95% identical to presidential election results due to intense polarization in various states. In the 2020 election, only one state (Maine) voted for one party for the presidency and the other for the Senate, compared to 6 states in the 2012 election.
Analysts consider that the Senate election map this year is unfavorable for Democrats, as they are defending 24 of 34 seats, including 4 in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, although none of the divisions were won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. States held by Republicans.
The same pattern applies to voting and voting for president in the House of Representatives, as only 4% of the House voted one way and another for president-elect.
Despite the tumultuous US presidential election campaign with all the noise that marginalizes the importance of congressional elections, no new president can implement his promises and his political agenda items without the support of one or both chambers (Representatives and Senate). .
