2024 US Presidential Election: How will the most critical election in modern history affect the future of the United States and the world? – Reporter
The 2024 US presidential election – a showdown between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris – will take place on November 5. As China continues to exert pressure on the West Pacific situation against a backdrop of global unrest, the Middle East war with Israel continues, and the anti-Russian war in Ukraine continues, the outcome of this election will not be decisive. The political direction and social cohesion of the United States over the next four years could also be shaken by the international system known since World War II as “Pax Americana.”
However, due to the peculiarities of the internal politics and electoral system of the United States, US elections often reveal vast differences in campaign strategies, voter structure, and even the priorities of political issues “Americans and the rest of the world think differently.”
To gain a deeper understanding of how Americans view this election, “The Reporter” focused on three key points during Trump’s run for president in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and dissected the changes in the electoral map of the Democratic and Republican parties. Eight years of the “Trump era”. Through the data, we can glimpse the intersecting shifts in Trump and Harris’ support structures, as well as the calculated campaign logic behind the candidates’ inflammatory policy slogans and explain the reasons for social polarization in “One America.” different world.”
While during the election campaign, exchanges between Sichuan and The Hague focused on domestic issues such as the economy and inflation, the United States’ international allies and competitors focused closely on the diplomatic blueprint and strategic direction expressed by the two sides—such as the United Kingdom, which has its closest allies. , it has re-engaged with China over US military aid to NATO and Ukraine, and indecision on sensitive issues like tariffs and trade wars, setting the stage for a post-election shift in the US called “pragmatic diplomacy.”
The policy polarization of the US election campaign has been particularly highlighted by the conflicting foreign policies and worldviews between Trump and Harris. Trump shouted “America first,” while Harris advocated deeper cooperation with international allies.
“The Reporter” interviewed strategic experts and scholars from Taiwan and the United States from the perspective of actual diplomatic experience, think tank policy analysis, and mutual relations between Taiwanese and American communities and civil society, discussing the respective views of both candidates. Analyze macro diplomacy, China policy, and foreign policy opinions and possible attitudes toward Taiwan. Although Taiwan-US relations underwent structural changes during Trump’s first term as president, President Joe Biden further promoted the “internationalization of the Taiwan Strait issue” on this basis, causing Japan, the Philippines, and Australia and other European countries to care about the issue. , and even actually participated in security strategies to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. This China encirclement network and the “international friendly Taiwan network” which was created with fluctuations in the end experienced great difficulties? How will Taiwan respond to the next US president’s change and change?
How will Americans choose — choose Harris, who is relatively stable and conservative, but inherits the baggage of Biden’s administration? Or is it Trump 2.0 who doesn’t play by common sense and can be defeated or established? The thinking and voting choices of the American electorate is not only a major test of the American democratic system, but also makes the election day of November 5, 2024 the key to global strategy and even historic chain effects.
Producers: Zhang Zhenhong, Lee Shirley
Text: Zhang Zhenhong, Jian Yihui, Li Shirley, Hong Yafang
Cover photography
Photography: Zheng Yuchen, Hong Yafang
Design: Jiang Shimin, Huang Yuzhen
Editor: Zhang Shiyun
Video: Fang Junzhu
Community Planning: Chen Sihua, Lin Yanling