Led by perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, the Cleveland Guardians enter the 2026 MLB season aiming for a third consecutive American League Central division title. The team overcame a significant 15.5-game deficit last season to secure their 13th division title in franchise history, a feat unfortunately followed by elimination in the Wild Card round against the Detroit Tigers – the very team they had overtaken to win the division.
Despite a successful 2025 campaign, the Guardians have adopted a remarkably quiet offseason, making no significant additions to their Major League roster. The organization is placing its faith in internal development to bolster an offense that ranked 29th in OPS and 27th in runs scored last season.
Now under the leadership of two-time AL Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt, Cleveland has consistently found ways to win despite often being outmatched on paper. As the 2026 season approaches, projections are beginning to surface, attempting to map out Vogt’s starting lineup and pitching rotation. However, a closer look reveals some questionable assumptions.
Ramirez is expected to anchor the lineup from the No. 3 spot, protected by Kyle Manzardo batting cleanup. Steven Kwan will continue to lead off and patrol left field, while Bo Naylor is slated to enter his third season as the starting catcher. These positions appear relatively secure.
However, beyond these core players, the projected lineups raise concerns. One significant issue lies with the predicted starting pitching rotation. While Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee are clearly the top two starters, placing Logan Allen at No. 3 seems illogical. Allen demonstrated effectiveness in a six-man rotation last September, posting a 3.22 ERA in four starts, but he was definitively ranked sixth behind Williams, Bibee, Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, and rookie Parker Messick.
Allen was notably excluded from the Wild Card series roster, with Williams, Bibee, and Cecconi earning the starting nods. Cantillo served as the team’s left-handed long relief option. It’s more probable that Allen will lose his rotation spot to Messick during spring training than be positioned as the third starter.
Turning to the lineup, the omission of George Valera as an Opening Day starter is another point of contention. The projection favors Nolan Jones in right field, despite Valera’s strong performance after his September call-up. Valera posted a 107 OPS+ in 16 games, frequently batting second between Kwan and Ramirez. He also started two of Cleveland’s three playoff games, hitting second and playing right field.
While Jones recently avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year, $2 million deal, his recent performance has been underwhelming. He has a .618 OPS over his last 700 plate appearances. His standout 2023 season in Colorado appears to be an outlier, and prioritizing him over Valera would potentially hinder the development of both Valera and Chase DeLauter.
The situation surrounding DeLauter is particularly nuanced. While he deserves to begin 2026 as a big leaguer, the Guardians have historically adopted a cautious approach with young talent. Fans have long advocated for the early promotion of players like Naylor, Manzardo, and Kayfus, but the team consistently delayed their debuts, favoring established, albeit less promising, players. It’s likely the Guardians will employ a similar strategy with DeLauter, potentially starting him in Triple-A despite his impressive .888 OPS across 583 Minor League plate appearances.
Finally, the Guardians must address the uncertainty in the middle infield. It’s time for a definitive decision between Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias. With 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana nearing MLB readiness, and the potential of Juan Brito, continuing to give significant playing time to Arias, who owns a career .630 OPS despite his tantalizing tools, would be a misstep.
Rocchio, despite his flaws, has demonstrated an ability to perform in crucial moments. Establishing him as the everyday shortstop, utilizing Arias as a versatile right-handed bench bat, and opening second base for either Brito or Bazzana represents the most logical path forward for the Guardians in 2026.
The Guardians’ success in 2026 will hinge not only on the performance of their established stars but also on their ability to make sound decisions regarding their developing talent and address the clear weaknesses in their projected lineup and rotation. The coming spring training will be critical in determining whether the team can build upon its recent success and contend for a deeper playoff run.
