The Data-driven Dominance of Paul Skenes
Table of Contents
Published August 19,2025
Beyond the Radar Gun: A New Era of Pitching
For decades,a pitcher glancing backward was a telltale sign of checking the radar gun,seeking validation or a fast adjustment. But a new generation of pitchers, led by Pittsburgh Pirates’ sensation Paul Skenes, are looking for more then just velocity. They’re diving into a wealth of data, analyzing metrics like never before too refine their craft and gain a competitive edge.
“I’m checking it probably more than I should,” Skenes admitted,referring to the advanced metrics displayed at PNC Park. “Like if you see me look back,I’m not velo checking,I’m metric checking.It’s a nice thing that we’ve got those up.”
Decoding the Movement: Vertical Break and Pitch shape
At PNC Park,Skenes has access to real-time data on both the vertical and horizontal movement of his pitches. This allows him to assess not just how hard he’s throwing, but how he’s throwing it.With a diverse arsenal of six regularly used pitches, understanding the shape of each offering is crucial for maximizing their effectiveness. The shape of his fastball, in particular, dictates how his secondary pitches will play.
This was demonstrably true during the Pirates’ 5-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on August 18,2025. Skenes heavily featured his four-seamer, throwing it 51 times during a 96-pitch, six-inning outing. He generated a season-high 10 whiffs with the pitch, contributing to an eight-strikeout performance. While he didn’t earn the win, key offensive contributions from Henry Davis secured the victory.
The “Unicorn” Fastball: A Statistical Anomaly
Skenes’ success on monday wasn’t simply about throwing hard; it was about throwing with remarkable movement. Early in the game, he threw a four-seamer that didn’t meet his standards. But his next offering was a revelation. According to Baseball Savant, that pitch exhibited 14 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) – a significant jump from his season average of 11 inches.
IVB measures the upward movement of a fastball due to spin, and a higher IVB makes the pitch more challenging for hitters to track. A 27% increase in movement is a substantial difference, effectively making Skenes’ fastball even more deceptive. “Imagine how tough a Paul Skenes fastball is to hit, and then have it move about 27% more than usual,” one scout remarked.
Consistency and Execution: The Keys to Success
Skenes didn’t abandon his four-seamer despite the initial misstep.He continued to attack the zone, locating the pitch effectively (63% zone rate) and frustrating Blue Jays hitters. he complemented his fastball with a changeup, generating four strikeouts with that offering. The Blue Jays managed only two runs, the first earned runs Skenes had allowed at PNC Park as June 3rd.
Pirates manager Don Kelly acknowledged Skenes’ remarkable consistency. ”I didn’t even know it was that long,” Kelly saeid, referring to the streak of scoreless innings at PNC Park. “I think sometimes he goes out there and he’s so good so often that you kind of come to expect it,which is entirely unfair to him because that’s not baseball.”
The bigger Picture: Data and the modern Pitcher
Skenes understands that data is a tool,not a replacement for skill. “The metrics are one thing, executing a pitch is another,” he explained. “They’re big league hitters. They’re really good. They can hit good pitches… I think it just came to execution.”
His performance underscores a growing trend in baseball: the integration of advanced analytics into every aspect of the game. Pitchers like Skenes are not just relying on feel; they’re leveraging data to understand their strengths, identify weaknesses, and optimize their approach.This data-driven approach is positioning skenes as a leading candidate for the National League Cy Young award.
