Lying between the US and Russia, Greenland has become a critical frontline as the Arctic opens up becuase of global heating.
its importance has been underscored by Donald Trump openly considering the US taking the island from its nato partner Denmark, either by buying it, or by force.The climate crisis is shrinking Greenland’s ice sheet,along with the wider Arctic sea ice,opening new sea routes and exposing valuable resources.
Trump’s threats, previously dismissed as bluster, are now being seen as an early signal of how melting ice is turning Greenland into a valuable geopolitical flashpoint. The maps below show how this is developing.
Sea ice is melting
The average extent of sea ice in the Arctic over the last five years was 4.6m sq km. This is roughly equivalent to the size of the EU.
But this is a 27% drop compared with the average of 6.4m sq km between 1981 and 2010, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The sea ice lost is roughly equivalent to the size of Libya.
In 2025, the container ship Istanbul bridge became the first liner vessel to travel from China to Europe via the northern sea route, also known as the “Polar Silk Road” shortcut.
The ship travelled from Ningbo, China, to Felixstowe, UK, in about 20 days.
Data from the Marine Exchange of Alaska, a maritime monitoring organisation, showed there were 665 transits through the Bering trait, which separates Russia from the US, in 2024, a 175% rise from 242 in 2010.
The US already has a military presence in the Arctic and in Greenland specifically.
The remote Pituffik base in north-west Greenland hosts missile warning, missile defense and space operations for the US and Nato.
Pituffik space base in northern Greenland. Photograph: Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP/Getty Images
russia has opened several military bases in the last decade, as well as restoring old Soviet infrastructure and airfields.
In 2018, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in an effort to gain more influence in the region.
andreeva says: “There has been an increased military interest in the Arctic over the last 10 to 15 years, and the landscape has changed significantly since 2022 [when Russia invaded Ukraine].”
She adds that Finland and Sweden’s recent accession to Nato has reshaped the security landscape, increasing the focus on the Nordics as a collective. This has entrenched Russia’s desire to assert control over areas such as the Kola peninsula and the Barents bastion.
Adversarial Research Report - Greenland rare Earths (as of 2026/01/16 00:18:52)
Source Text Snippet: (provided text about Greenland’s rare earth reserves, Shenghe Resources’ stake, and mining challenges)
Overall Assessment: The provided text generally aligns with publicly available information as of late 2023/early 2024, but requires updating and nuance. The situation regarding Greenland’s rare earth projects is rapidly evolving, and recent developments necessitate revisions to the claims made in the source.
Factual Claim verification & Updates:
- Greenland’s Rare Earth Reserves: The claim that Greenland ranks eighth in the world for rare earth reserves, estimated at 1.5 million tonnes (USGS data) is largely accurate as of late 2023/early 2024. Though,estimates vary significantly depending on methodology and what is considered economically viable to extract. More recent assessments (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024, released January 2024) still place Greenland among the top 10, but acknowledge the uncertainty in reserve estimates. The 1.5 million tonne figure is a reasonable, though potentially conservative, estimate.
* Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-rare-earths.pdf
- Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez Deposits: The identification of Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez as the largest known deposits is accurate. thes remain the focus of most international interest.
* Source: Multiple sources confirm this, including reports from the Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum. https://minerals.gl/en/projects/kvanefjeld/
- Shenghe Resources’ Stake in Kvanefjeld: The claim that China’s Shenghe Resources holds a 12.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld project is OUTDATED and INACCURATE as of November 2023. In November 2023, Greenland’s goverment blocked Shenghe Resources’ attempt to increase its stake in Kvanefjeld, citing national security concerns. Shenghe still holds a minority stake through its subsidiary, but the proposed increase was rejected.The current stake is reported to be around 9.7%.
* Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-blocks-chinese-firm-increasing-stake-rare-earth-project-2023-11-29/
* Source: https://www.mining.com/greenland-blocks-chinese-firms-bid-to-boost-rare-earths-stake/
- Inaccessibility & Mining Challenges: The statement regarding inaccessibility due to ice cover (approximately 80% ice-free) and seasonal limitations is generally accurate. However, advancements in mining technology and infrastructure planning are actively addressing these challenges.
* Source: Greenland Bureau of minerals and Petroleum reports.
- Global Heating & Resource Exposure: The observation that global heating is exposing new mineral resources is accurate and a growing concern. Retreating ice is indeed revealing previously inaccessible areas, but this also raises critically important environmental concerns.
* Source: Scientific studies on glacial retreat in Greenland, such as those published by NASA and the European Space Agency.
Breaking News Check (as of 2026/01/16 00:18:52):
* Ongoing Political debate: Greenland continues to grapple with balancing economic opportunities from rare earth mining with environmental protection and national security concerns.There is ongoing debate about the level of foreign investment allowed and the regulatory framework for mining operations.
* Australian Investment: In early 2025, an Australian company, Greenland Minerals Limited (now owned by Alkane Resources), secured a preliminary agreement with the Greenland government to restart feasibility studies on the Kvanefjeld project. This represents a significant shift away from Chinese dominance in the project
