PVV Fractie Split: Assessing the Potential Electoral impact
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The departure of seven members from the Party for Freedom (PVV) parliamentary faction raises questions about the party’s future electoral performance. The split, announced on january 24, 2026, stems from disagreements over party leader Geert Wilders‘ stance on potential coalition negotiations following the November 2023 Dutch general election.
Background of the Split
On January 24, 2026, seven PVV MPs – Freek Jansen, Hero Brinkman, Martin Bos, Joeri Poolen, Robert Valenberg, Antoinette Hermans-Verbree, and Dion Graus – announced their departure from the PVV faction. they will continue as independent MPs. The MPs cited concerns about Wilders’ willingness to compromise on core PVV principles during potential coalition talks, specifically regarding the European Union and immigration. According to a statement released by the departing MPs, they felt a “growing distance” between their views and those of the party leadership. Source: NRC Handelsblad
Potential Electoral Consequences
The immediate electoral impact is arduous to quantify, but experts suggest a potential decline in PVV support. A January 25, 2026, poll by Ipsos found that 26% of respondents who voted for the PVV in 2023 indicated they woudl no longer do so if the party entered a coalition with the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy). Source: Ipsos
- Seat loss projection: Political analysts at the University of Leiden estimate the PVV could lose between 2 and 5 seats in a snap election, based on current polling data and the potential for voter migration to other right-wing parties like the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB).
- Voter Fragmentation: The split could lead to further fragmentation of the right-wing vote, possibly benefiting centrist parties.
- coalition Formation: The reduced PVV faction size complicates coalition formation,potentially leading to a more unstable government.
Official statements
“We cannot,in good conscience,support a course that compromises the essential principles we were elected to uphold,”
– Statement released by the seven departing PVV MPs,january 24,2026
Geert Wilders responded to the split with a brief statement,stating that the departing MPs were “free to make their own choices” and that the PVV would “continue to fight for the interests of the Dutch people.” Source: De Volkskrant
The situation remains fluid, and the long-term electoral consequences will depend on how the PVV navigates the coming months and whether other right-wing parties can capitalize on the party’s internal divisions.
