The final day of the New START treaty, , has passed, leaving the United States and Russia without a formal agreement limiting their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in over half a century. While both Moscow and Washington acknowledge the need for a new treaty, significant hurdles remain, including disagreements over its scope and legal enforceability.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that there is “an understanding” between both sides to begin discussions on a new agreement “as soon as possible,” following talks held in Abu Dhabi. However, Peskov also cautioned that Russia would require any new agreement to be legally binding, dismissing the possibility of an informal extension as unrealistic. “The provisions [in New START] can be extended formally, but it’s difficult to imagine how something like that could be done informally,” he told reporters.
New START, originally signed in by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, capped each country’s deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and limited the number of deployed launchers and bombers to 800. The treaty also established a framework for mutual on-site inspections, designed to verify compliance and build trust.
Russia’s relationship with the treaty deteriorated in , with President Vladimir Putin accusing NATO of seeking to attack Russia’s nuclear facilities and announcing Moscow’s suspension of its participation. Russian officials later clarified that while they would cease participation in certain aspects of the agreement, such as inspections, they would continue to abide by the numerical limits on warheads and delivery systems. Putin subsequently called for a one-year extension of New START, characterizing its complete abandonment as “a mistake.”
The expiration of New START coincides with a period of heightened geopolitical tension, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the risk of nuclear weapon use is at its highest level in decades, a sentiment echoed by international arms control experts. The absence of a binding treaty raises concerns about a potential arms race, as both countries are now free to increase their nuclear arsenals without constraint.
U.S. President Donald Trump had previously expressed openness to a new agreement, but insisted that it include China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities. Putin also called for the inclusion of France and the United Kingdom in any follow-up treaty. However, Trump, in an interview with The New York Times last month, indicated a willingness to move forward without an extension, stating, “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
The expiration of New START marks the first time since the Reagan administration, nearly 40 years ago, that the U.S. Has been without a nuclear arms control treaty with Russia. According to a report by Axios, citing anonymous U.S. Officials, Washington and Moscow were reportedly close to reaching a deal to continue observing the treaty’s limits beyond its expiration, though without formal legal ratification.
Beyond the immediate implications for U.S.-Russia relations, the treaty’s demise raises broader questions about the future of nuclear arms control. The treaty only applied to deployed strategic nuclear weapons, meaning both Russia and the United States maintain significantly larger overall arsenals. Russia is estimated to possess 5,459 nuclear warheads, while the United States holds 5,177. The lack of limitations on these non-deployed weapons, as well as on tactical nuclear weapons, adds to the growing concerns about nuclear proliferation and instability.
In a positive, though tentative, development, Russian and U.S. Officials agreed on to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue, which had been suspended since February , just months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This re-engagement, while limited in scope, could provide a crucial channel for communication and risk reduction at a time of heightened tensions. However, the path towards a new nuclear arms control agreement remains uncertain, and the international community will be closely watching developments in the coming months.
