Riyadh – Saudi Arabia is recalibrating its ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification plan, shifting focus away from large-scale construction projects towards tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and energy. The move, announced by Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, signals a strategic adjustment to the kingdom’s decade-old reform agenda, originally unveiled in 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Launched with a $2 trillion price tag, Vision 2030 aimed to reduce Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenue and transform its economy and society. Initial efforts centered on massive infrastructure projects, including the futuristic city of NEOM and initiatives to expand women’s rights and private sector growth. However, economic pressures and reassessments of project viability are now driving a revised approach.
The shift in strategy is already manifesting in scaled-back or halted projects. Earlier this month, , Saudi Arabia withdrew its bid to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games, relocating the event from the under-construction Trojena ski resort within the NEOM project to Almaty, Kazakhstan. This decision follows a scaling down of the original NEOM plans, which initially envisioned two parallel skyscrapers stretching 170 kilometers – a concept now reduced to a 2.4-kilometer development.
Further evidence of the recalibration came in late , with the suspension of construction on The Mukaab, a planned 400-meter cube-shaped skyscraper intended as the centerpiece of Riyadh’s new Murabba district. Officials are currently reviewing the project’s funding and feasibility.
In place of these expansive projects, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced in the King Salman Gate project, a new development near the Grand Mosque in Mecca designed to accommodate an additional 900,000 worshippers. This signals a potential prioritization of projects with more immediate religious and social impact.
Analysts suggest a confluence of factors is driving the shift. Alice Gower, Director of Geopolitics and Security at Azure Strategy, explained that “every major project essentially goes through a phase of revision and adjustment in response to broader considerations.” She added that the ambitious scale of Vision 2030, particularly its mega-projects, was “from the outset… arguably unrealistic.”
Economic realities are also playing a significant role. Lower-than-anticipated global oil prices, coupled with high government spending and the need to create employment opportunities for a young population, are straining the kingdom’s finances. The Public Investment Fund (PIF), the primary investor in Vision 2030 projects, is reportedly under pressure to prioritize investments with quicker returns.
PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan stated in that the fund would focus on six “ecosystems” over the next five years: tourism, urban development, innovation, clean energy, and industry. This focus aligns with the revised Vision 2030 strategy and suggests a move towards more sustainable and economically viable investments.
The revised strategy also appears to be influenced by opportunities to leverage international events. Gower noted that the new focus “is geared towards internationally-oriented projects like the 2034 World Cup, where the potential benefits for Saudi Arabia are substantial.” These events offer opportunities to showcase Saudi Arabia to a global audience.
The adjustments to Vision 2030 have received support from international financial institutions. A recent working paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended further reforms to address structural gaps and align initiatives with the aspirations of Saudi Arabia’s youth. The IMF report highlighted a mismatch between the skills available in the Saudi workforce and the needs of the priority sectors outlined in Vision 2030.
As Vision 2030 enters its tenth year, the shift in focus raises questions about the expectations of a younger generation of Saudis who have grown up with the promise of economic transformation. Gower cautioned that the change in direction could be surprising to many who have aligned their careers with the goals of the development plan.
Despite the adjustments, observers do not anticipate widespread public discontent. Saudi Arabia continues to face criticism for its human rights record and suppression of dissent. Recent years have seen individuals sentenced to lengthy prison terms for expressing views on human rights on social media, and an increase in executions in .
Gower anticipates that the state’s surveillance apparatus will be sensitive to any signs of dissatisfaction, whether expressed on social media or in public spaces, particularly regarding the revision of the reform agenda.
Julia Legner, Executive Director of the London-based human rights monitoring organization ALQST, emphasized that the large-scale, top-down initiatives driven by the PIF and controlled by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman exclude the majority of Saudi society.
Human Rights Watch’s Ahmed Benchemsi echoed this sentiment, stating that “in Saudi Arabia, reforms and repression are both imposed from the top, under strict authoritarian rule.” While changes may appear progressive on the surface, a more sobering reality exists beneath.
