With so many Democratic candidates vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, a surprising possibility has emerged: California voters could end up choosing between two Republican candidates in the November general election. Newsom is term-limited and ineligible to run again, opening the door for a potentially seismic shift in California’s political landscape.
The unusual scenario is made possible by California’s “top two” primary system, which allows the two candidates receiving the most votes in the primary – regardless of party affiliation – to advance to the general election. While unprecedented in recent California history, political analyst Paul Mitchell believes there’s a 12% chance of a Republican-on-Republican matchup this November.
Mitchell, of Political Data Inc., developed a data tool to simulate various election outcomes based on polling numbers, campaign spending, and other factors. “It’s one thing to say ‘You can dismiss that, that’s not likely to happen, it’s never happened before,’” Mitchell explained. “It isn’t something that should be dismissed.” He cautioned that even a small probability warrants attention, comparing the risk to the seriousness of avoiding a car accident.
According to Mitchell, a Republican-on-Republican general election could “politically decimate” the Democratic party in California. “If two Republicans were on the ballot in November, Democratic turnout would be so decimated that it would dramatically impact the politics statewide and potentially nationally,” he stated. This could have ripple effects on down-ballot races, including competitive congressional contests and statewide ballot measures.
The California Democratic Party is scheduled to convene this weekend in San Francisco, where they will consider endorsing a candidate to consolidate support within the party. However, Mitchell believes a party endorsement is unlikely. He noted that any candidate would need to secure 60% of the delegate vote, a difficult threshold given the number of Democrats already in the race and their established political bases.
“All these candidates that are running have their own political bases and I don’t think in the next week and a half are going to end up rallying around one of these candidates,” Mitchell said. He suggested that other political leaders might step forward to endorse candidates if the possibility of a Republican runoff persists as the election draws closer.
Mitchell’s analysis highlights the potential for an unpredictable election cycle in California. His data tool allows users to input different parameters and observe how changes in polling, fundraising, or candidate participation could affect the outcome. While acknowledging the limitations of polling data so far out from the election, Mitchell emphasized the importance of taking the possibility of a Republican runoff seriously.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is already shaping up to be a closely watched contest, with over two dozen candidates having declared their campaigns. The outcome will not only determine the next governor of California but could also have significant implications for the state’s political future and potentially influence national politics.
Watch the full interview with Paul Mitchell here.
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KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala reports in-depth coverage of top California politics and policy issues. She is also the host of “California Politics 360.” Get informed each Sunday at 8:30 a.m. On KCRA 3.
