Warsaw – Poland is poised to become the largest beneficiary of the European Union’s newly operational €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, securing nearly PLN 200 billion (approximately €43.7 billion) in funding for defence investments. The European Commission issued a positive assessment of Poland’s application for funding on , a development hailed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk as a “watershed moment” for both Polish and European security.
The SAFE instrument, conceived in part through Polish initiative during its EU presidency, marks the first time the European Union is directly investing in arms procurement. Tusk emphasized that the initiative reflects a growing recognition within Europe that the security of NATO’s eastern border is a shared responsibility. “From the very first day of our government, we did everything to ensure that NATO’s eastern border became an important task for all of Europe,” he stated ahead of a Council of Ministers meeting.
The scale of the funding earmarked for Poland is significant. According to Tusk, the amount surpasses the entire defence budgets of Spain and Italy combined. The funds are intended to modernize the Polish armed forces, bolster the domestic defence industry, and enhance overall national security. Approximately 80 percent of the investment is expected to flow directly to Polish companies, providing a substantial stimulus to the national economy.
However, the ambitious borrowing plan is not without its critics. President Karol Nawrocki has urged caution, describing the proposed €43.7 billion loan as a “huge debt that will be repaid by the Polish state for years.” His staff indicated on , that they are working on amendments to the government’s SAFE proposal. This stance contrasts sharply with Tusk’s assessment that the loans are being offered on “very favorable terms, unavailable on the market in any other way,” featuring a 10-year grace period for principal repayments.
The debate surrounding SAFE highlights a broader tension within Polish politics regarding the country’s defence strategy and its relationship with the EU. Nawrocki’s advisors have voiced concerns that the programme may ultimately benefit Germany more than Poland, appealing to a segment of the electorate wary of Berlin’s influence. The President has called for greater clarity regarding the costs, conditions, and potential political strings attached to the SAFE funding.
Concerns extend beyond purely financial considerations. Legal analysis from the Polish think tank Ordo Iuris suggests that the SAFE instrument incorporates a “rule of law” conditionality mechanism, linking disbursement of funds to adherence to EU standards. This raises the possibility that payments could be suspended if the European Commission deems Poland’s implementation unsatisfactory, or if broader political conditions are not met. This aspect of the programme has been described by Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a social advisor to President Nawrocki, as placing a “double Nelson” on Poland, effectively immobilizing the country through financial and political leverage.
The SAFE mechanism operates on a milestone-based system, requiring Poland to submit a detailed investment plan outlining its procurement intentions, planned actions, expenditure, financing structure, and compliance measures. The European Commission will assess progress at each stage, and retain the authority to suspend payments if it deems implementation inadequate. This level of oversight has prompted questions about the extent to which the EU is expanding its influence over member states’ defence policies.
Poland’s decision to pursue substantial borrowing under SAFE reflects its commitment to significantly increasing defence spending. The country plans to devote 4.8 percent of its GDP to defence this year, one of the highest percentages within NATO. This investment is driven by a perceived need to deter Russia and provide continued support to Ukraine, placing considerable pressure on Poland’s public finances. The availability of low-interest, long-term loans through SAFE is therefore seen as crucial to achieving these goals without exacerbating existing budgetary constraints.
Alongside Poland, seven other member states are set to receive financial assistance under the initial phase of the SAFE instrument, as approved by the Council of the European Union. The agreement also finalizes a defence procurement agreement with Canada. This broader rollout underscores the EU’s ambition to strengthen its collective defence capabilities and foster greater strategic autonomy. However, the Polish case demonstrates that the implementation of SAFE is likely to be politically complex, requiring careful negotiation and a willingness to address concerns about national sovereignty and financial risk.
The long-term implications of SAFE remain to be seen. While proponents argue that it represents a vital step towards a more secure and resilient Europe, critics warn that it could create new dependencies and vulnerabilities. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the instrument delivers on its promise of bolstering European defence, or whether it becomes a source of further division and contention within the EU.
