Wheat Futures Fluctuate Amidst Russian Production Concerns and Export Data
Chicago wheat futures experienced a mixed session Tuesday, , breaking a four-day losing streak as export prices in Russia improved due to weather difficulties, according to reports. December wheat futures rose 2% to $5.21 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The price movement comes as analysts continue to monitor global wheat supplies and potential disruptions. Recent forecasts from the Russian agricultural research firm SovEcon project the country’s wheat production for the season at 83.8 million metric tons. This is lower than the estimated 89.5 million metric tons for the season, according to Western Producer.
Russian farmers have planted 38.5 million acres of winter wheat, a decrease of 1.3% year-over-year, the report indicated. The shift in Russian production expectations is contributing to volatility in the global wheat market.
Adding to the market dynamics, U.S. Export inspections for both corn and wheat have decreased. In the seven days ending , corn inspections totaled 1.49 million metric tons, down from 1.61 million metric tons the previous week and 1.62 million metric tons in the same week last year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat inspections were reported at 375,402 metric tons, a decrease from 580,619 metric tons the prior week, though still higher than the 250,829 metric tons inspected during the same period last year.
Soybean export inspections, however, increased to 1.2 million metric tons, compared to 1.14 million metric tons the previous week and 727,529 metric tons in the same week last year.
Since the start of the marketing year on , the USDA has inspected 35.7 million metric tons of corn for offshore delivery, up from 24.7 million metric tons during the same period last year. Soybean inspections since the beginning of September now total 24.3 million metric tons, down from 36 million metric tons last year. Wheat inspections since the start of the marketing year on , now total 17.7 million metric tons, up from 14.9 million metric tons inspected in the same period last year.
Looking ahead, weather patterns are also influencing market sentiment. Snowstorms are forecast for the northern United States, while extremely dry conditions are moving into parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. These conditions could impact future crop yields and contribute to price fluctuations.
On , wheat for March delivery fell 0.6% to $5.49 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, following a week of short-covering support. The decline was attributed to questions surrounding the health of Russia’s crop, though Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon indicated that any damage would likely be minimal unless freezing temperatures persist.
The market is also anticipating the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, due next week, which analysts suggest could contain surprises. Randy Mittelstaedt of RJO Futures cautioned that the report should be approached with increased caution, given the history of unexpected production figures in agricultural markets.
