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Analysis of Bank Stock Performance in 4th Quarter of 2023

10 bank stocks in the commercial banking group Complete results for the 4th quarter of 2023 have been published.

Had a consolidated profit of 50,628 million baht, an increase of 23.31% compared to the 4th quarter of 2022.

In terms of profit for the whole year 2023, totaling 232,017 million baht, an increase of 16.00%.

If you look at the total numbers like this

It should be a factor supporting stocks in the group.

However, that is not the case.

This is because stocks in the group, such as KBANK, KTB, KKP, BBL, had important financial figures that were different from analysts’ expectations.

Including profit, non-performing debt (NPL), capital reserves, etc.

As a result, investors, institutional, foreign, and retail, have adjusted their portfolios. or sell these shares

After this, we will have to wait for clarity about the direction of operations. and predict the operating results for 2024 again after a meeting between the bank’s executives. and analyst

But I believe that the results or views that come out should not be much different from the day these bank stocks published their statements.

Including profit forecast, target price, “buy” and “hold” recommendations.

The more operators of different banks give that information.

It is quite different from general listed companies (Ltd.).

That is, information will be given in a cautious, conservative or conservative way.

The question or question is: What about the bank stock prices that have fallen? Is this a time for snaring and buying?

The answer or solution is to look at both technical signals. Look at the stock price graph and analyst earnings forecast direction together

As yesterday, Krungthai Stock Price or KTB fell the most in the group.

From the level of 18.10 baht on Friday, January 19th.

Down to close at 16.20 baht, down 1.90 baht, change -10.50%, trading value 4,807.4 million baht.

During the day, the price fell to as low as 15.60 baht, the lowest point in 18 months.

As for the closing price at 16.20 baht, this is the exact support level.

If today (23 January) Krungthai stock price continues to fall

The next support level is 15.30 baht and the deepest level is 14.50 baht.

But I’m pretty sure that The price is unlikely to break below the support level of 15.30 baht (15.00 baht is a psychological support level).

As for today, if Krungthai stock price bounces back the resistance level will be between 16.50-16.90 baht.

While the latest analysis of Krungthai stocks with 11 brokerages provides the latest price update (22 January), the lowest price target is found to be 18.50 baht and the highest price target is 26.00 baht.

Yesterday Kasikorn Bank or KBANK broke the support level of 121.50 baht and closed at 120.50 baht.

The next support line is 118.50-116.00 baht

KBANK, the price that went down to the lowest and closest point was the level of 101.00 baht on 2 August 2022, and the position then and the latest position was strong. Kasikorn Bank’s business opportunities are very different.

Therefore, it is believed that the price will not fall below 100.00 baht.

As for Bangkok Bank or BBL, the next support line is 142.00 baht, and yesterday it closed at 144.50 baht.

Technically, the price should not break support.

But we have to go back and look at what was the “cost” of foreign investors who adjusted their BBL stock portfolio.

There are analysts who estimate that it could be in the price range. 1100.00-120.00 baht

For bank stocks, it is found that stock prices will go up and down according to the situation. That is, when faced with many reserves, the price will fall heavily, and then once (the worst point has passed) the price will bounce back slowly each time.

Bank stock prices have never plunged and disappeared without rising or not.

Whoever is stuck, if you can hold and wait, you should hold, at least there will be some comfort in dividends. Product is not ugly.

As for if no one has stocks in their portfolio yet.

You may need to find a good supporting moment to buy and hold for the medium term.

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