Analysis Reveals Similarities Between Current Israel-Palestine Conflict and Fourth Middle East War
In light of the escalating armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, experts are drawing comparisons to the Fourth Middle East War that took place 50 years ago between Egypt and Israel. While the purpose of the current armed provocations appears to be different, concerns are mounting that the situation could devolve into a protracted and complex war.
Foreign Policy, an American diplomatic magazine, recently reported that Hamas’s pre-emptive surprise attack exhibited similarities to the Fourth Middle East War, also known as the Yom Kippur War, which occurred in 1973. Drawing on Hamas’s strategy in relation to the Yom Kippur War, analysts are attempting to predict the trajectory of the current conflict. In 1973, during the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, the Egyptian army launched a surprise attack on Israeli troops across the Suez Canal. Utilizing high-performance hydraulic pumps, they swiftly breached Israel’s formidable defense line, known as the ‘Barlev Line’. Subsequently, the Israeli army launched counterattacks, but the Egyptian army had already prepared for this eventuality.
Similarly, this year’s attacks by Hamas bear similarities to past events. The surprise attack was timed to coincide with an Israeli holiday, while Hamas leaders were able to seek refuge in a tunnel beneath the Gaza Strip, thereby evading an all-out air assault by the Israeli army. This resemblance to the 1973 surprise attack by Egypt has led to the inference that Hamas is continuing this tactic.
While Hamas’s method of preparing for an air attack and then launching a surprise offensive mirrors past events, the overall objective of the current conflict is seen as different. Previous conflicts had specific territorial grievances as their focal point, often leading to peace agreements. However, this year’s conflict seems focused on the objective of total annihilation. Such a shift in purpose has raised concerns that the situation may become an intractable quagmire.
In contrast to Egypt’s approach in the past, where an all-out war with Israel’s regular army was not the intention, today’s Hamas explores a destructive agenda. Following his inauguration in 1970, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat privately proposed peace talks with Israel, with the condition of Israeli troop withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula. When Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir rejected this proposal, Egypt resorted to military provocation, though keeping the battlefield confined to the vicinity of the Suez Canal due to concerns over escalating civilian casualties. Egypt anticipated that if a full-scale war was to occur, offering a peace treaty again would not be feasible. Consequently, the Yom Kippur War resulted in a major loss of life for the Israeli army, while a peace agreement was reached swiftly. As the ceasefire began under the auspices of the Soviet Union and the United States, both sides retreated, aiming to limit further senseless destruction. Israel, having engaged in a retaliatory war, secured peace by virtue of its military successes. The perception subsequently emerged that engaging in an all-out war against Israel would prove challenging for Middle Eastern states. This eventually led to the gradual return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt by 1982. Despite the assassination of President Sadat, the peace agreement endured for over 50 years.
On the other hand, Hamas, as a Palestinian political faction, seeks to annihilate Israel. Rather than prioritizing viable goals such as Palestinian territorial expansion or economic improvement, Hamas emphasizes indiscriminate attacks, targeting Israeli citizens and society. Its objective is to strike populated areas and take civilians hostage. Consequently, there is no room for compromise between Israel and Hamas.
Tragically, civilian casualties in both countries are increasing by the day. In the past nine days alone, the death toll on both sides has exceeded 4,000. According to the World Health Organization, approximately 60% of the casualties in Gaza are women and children, a consequence of Israel’s aerial response to Hamas’s indiscriminate attacks.
Israel, for its part, has declared its intention to destroy Hamas. During a cabinet meeting on the 15th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would “destroy Hamas,” a sentiment echoed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. To achieve this goal, the Israeli military is contemplating sending ground troops into the Gaza Strip.
However, experts express concern regarding the Israeli government’s response, cautioning against an anger-driven strategy that may prove futile. Currently, the conflict between Hamas and Israel involves reciprocal responses between the organization and the state. If Israel were to overreact, there would be a risk of armed conflict with Middle Eastern countries that support Palestine, including Syria, Iran, and Jordan. Such a scenario would escalate the conflict to a national level, a situation that Hamas seeks to exploit. By provoking the Arab population, Hamas aims to disrupt the increasing atmosphere of peace in the Middle East, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, which poses a threat to the existence of Hamas. The faction has consistently opposed the normalization of relations between Israel and its neighboring Arab countries.
To defeat Hamas, Israel must guarantee the safety of Palestinian residents in the Gaza Strip, thereby undermining Hamas’s justification for armed provocation. Critics argue that a robust retaliation would only result in the destruction of Palestine, while Hamas would relocate to other regions and continue its terrorist activities. Sharan Grewal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, suggests that a fluid approach is required, one that avoids the repetitive cycle of violence. Drawing parallels to when President Sadat visited the Israeli Knesset in 1977, Grewal emphasizes the need for Israel to embrace bold tolerance as a potential solution.
By Oh Hyun-woo, ohw@hankyung.com
International
Inserted 2023.10.16 11:24 Modified 2023.10.16 11:30
As the armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian armed faction Hamas appears to be expanding into an all-out war, an analysis of future war scenarios has emerged. It is noted that this is similar to the Fourth Middle East War, when Egypt and Israel clashed 50 years ago. However, because the purpose of the armed provocations is clearly different, concerns are growing that the war situation will fall into a quagmire.
Following Egyptian tactics from 50 years ago
On the 13th (local time), Foreign Policy, an American diplomatic magazine, reported that the pre-emptive surprise attack by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas showed similar characteristics to the Fourth Middle East War (Yom Kippur War) in 1973. The analysis is that, given Hamas’s strategy of pursuing the Yom Kippur War, it is possible to infer how the war will unfold. On the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur in 1973, the Egyptian army launched a surprise attack on Israeli troops across the Suez Canal. They proceeded by destroying Israel’s powerful defense line, the ‘Barev Line’, with high performance hydraulic pumps. After that, the attacks of the Israeli army continued, but the Egyptian army had prepared for them in advance.
The attacks carried out by Hamas this year are similar. The surprise attack was launched to coincide with an Israeli holiday. There is a tunnel under the Gaza Strip where Hamas leaders can stay. This was in preparation for an all-out air attack by the Israeli army. This is why there is an analysis that it is a continuation of the surprise attack of Egypt 50 years ago.
Hamas’ method of preparing for an air attack and then launching a surprise attack is similar to the past, but the purpose of the war is evaluated to be different. In the past, peace agreements were made because a specific purpose (territory) was presented. There are growing concerns that the war situation could descend into a quagmire because this year’s conflict is focused on elimination.
war for destruction
In the past, Egypt had no plans to launch an all-out war with Israel’s regular army. According to Foreign Policy, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who took office in 1970, privately proposed peace talks with Israel that same year. It was a proposal to reach a peace agreement on the condition of withdrawing Israeli troops from the Sinai Peninsula.
When Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir refused, Egypt chose military provocation. However, the battlefield was limited to the vicinity of the Suez Canal. This is due to concerns that Israeli anger will intensify if civilian casualties increase. This reflects the calculation that if Israel launches an all-out war, it will not be possible to offer a peace treaty again. For this reason, the majority of the 2,656 Israeli deaths in the Yom Kippur War were Israeli soldiers.
Because it was a war with a specific purpose, a peace agreement was reached quickly. The Israeli army suffered huge losses at the start of the war and cornered the Egyptian army. As the ceasefire began with the intervention of the Soviet Union and the United States, both sides took a step back. It was agreed that meaningless damage should not be increased. Israel, who fought a war of revenge, ensured the prevention of war through military achievements. The perception spread that it would be difficult for the countries of the Middle East to fight an all-out war with Israel. Egypt returned the Sinai Peninsula in stages until 1982. Once the balance between the two sides was established, the peace agreement was maintained for over 50 years even after President Sadat was assassinated.
On the other hand, the goal of the armed Palestinian political faction Hamas was to destroy Israel. They prioritize indiscriminate attacks targeting the people and society of Israel over viable goals such as Palestinian territorial expansion and economic improvement. The aim is to attack as many populated areas as possible and take civilians hostage. This is why there is no room for compromise between Israel and Hamas.
Civilian casualties in both countries seem to be increasing day by day. Over the last 9 days of the 7th, the death toll on both sides was more than 4,000. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 60% of the dead in Gaza are women and children. This is a tragedy that happened when Israel responded to Hamas’s indiscriminate attacks with airplanes.
Israel’s response
Israel also announced the destruction of Hamas. On the 15th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a cabinet meeting that he would “destroy Hamas.” Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, also said, “We will root out Hamas.” To this end, the Israeli army is considering sending ground troops to the Gaza Strip.
However, experts expressed concern about the Israeli government’s response. This is because a response based on anger will be an unsuccessful strategy. The current conflict between Hamas and Israel is limited to a tit-for-tat response between the organization and the state. It is noted that if Israel overreacts, it will have to risk armed conflict with Middle Eastern countries that support Palestine, such as Syria, Iran, and Jordan. In this case, it expands into an all-out war on a national level. The analysis is that the escalation of the war is the scenario that Hamas had hoped for. Hamas tried to rally the Arab people again, starting with provocations. This is because as the atmosphere of peace in the Middle East region, led by Saudi Arabia, increases, the existence of Hamas is in danger. Hamas has always opposed the normalization of relations between Israel and neighboring Arab countries.< Trigolion Palestina yn ffoi rhag lloches> On the 13th, the Israeli army ordered the approximately 1.1 million residents of the northern region, including Gaza City, the largest city in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, to “evacuate everyone within 24 hours.” encouraged. Palestinian residents flee with household goods and valuables before a battle breaks out between Israeli ground troops and members of Hamas. /AFP Yonhap News It is suggested that in order for Israel to defeat Hamas, it must guarantee the safety of Palestinian residents in the Gaza Strip. This is to remove the justification for Hamas’s armed provocation. The argument is that if a strong retaliation is implemented, only Palestine will be destroyed and Hamas will seek refuge in other regions and continue its terrorist activities. “Now the rules of the game have become more fluid,” said Sharan Grenwal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The easy way is to repeat the vicious cycle of violence, but Israel pursues bold tolerance, as President Sadat visits the institution. Knesset in 1977.” “It can be the answer,” he stressed.
Reporter Oh Hyun-woo ohw@hankyung.com
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