#BANPU # Banhun-UOB Securities Kay Hian (Thailand) released a stock analysis of Banpu Public Company Limited or BANPU, expecting net profit in the 4th quarter of 2023 to be 485 million baht, a decrease of 77% from the previous quarter. Normal profit fell compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same period last year. This is a result of lower profits from the coal business and electricity generation business. As a result, net profit for the full year 2023 is expected to be 7.1 billion baht, a decrease of 82.4%, which maintains a negative view on coal prices of oversupply and limited demand growth. We recommend Hold with a target price of 6.10 baht .
The research department expects EBITDA from the coal business in 4Q23 to be at 4.2 billion baht, down 23% from the previous quarter. Coal sales from mines in Indonesia and Australia, 5.3 million tonnes, fell by 30% as a result of lower coal production in Indonesia. Following government-approved production quotas, coal sales from Indonesia were 3.4 million tonnes, down 36% from the previous quarter. The average selling price increased by 27% from the previous quarter. but it was reduced by higher production costs. Especially in Indonesia where new soil has been opened.
As for the gas business, 4Q23 EBITDA is expected to be at 1.4 billion baht, stable from the previous quarter. This is a result of stable sales. while the selling price increased But this was reduced by higher production costs.
Profits from the electricity business in 4Q23 are expected to decline significantly. Banpu Power Public Company Limited or BPP’s normal profit is expected to decrease from the previous quarter. due to reduced production capacity This is because power plants in Laos and the United States have planned to close for maintenance. These include Hongsa Power Units 2 and 3 for 22 days and 55 days, respectively, and Temple I and Temple II Power Plants for 10 days and 23 days, respectively, including higher financial costs. and a seasonal increase in G&A expenses. Although the performance of power plants in China will improve from the increased demand for electricity during the winter.
“We continue to be cautious in terms of the coal business. In particular, the trend of coal prices continues to fall. Including the cost of coal production, which fell more slowly than expected,” the UOB Research Department stated in the analysis
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