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Analyzing the Rockets: Keeping an Open Mind About Green and Sengun

Comedian Groucho Marx once said that the best attitude is to “keep an open mind, but not so much that your head comes out.” This is something worth considering. Rockets fans should keep an open mind now, and the management should be the same. Although the record soared a while ago, the team itself still has many unsolved mysteries.

When center Alperen Sengun was injured and missed the game, I originally thought Houston’s season would be over. Unexpectedly, everyone was wrong.

Jalen Green played as the team’s star in those 11 games, averaging 30.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.2 steals per game, with a true shooting percentage of 61.2% and 8 consecutive games Scoring more than 25 points .

This also makes people not help but raise a question, are the Rockets a better team without Sengun? The answer is no: Sengun averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game this season. No team will be better without its main star.

But it is worth considering the second question: Is Green and Sengun the best game? Can they complement each other?

Green and Sengun are both players who perform well with the ball. It’s not a problem that they both need to hold the ball, but there is a lot of overlap in the positions they are in. see like. Sengun is the core of the ball distribution and can launch attacks from the elbow area, but is better at attacking opponents in the low post.

When Sengun catches the ball in the low post, his main defender is usually a long man who is also in the low post. This makes it difficult for defenders who are good at breaking through to take advantage. Unfortunately, this is Green’s advantage.

The best way to resolve a dilemma is to keep an open mind and consider all options, including the wildest possibilities.

Keeping an open mind, we will consider the following three options: keep Sengun only, keep Green only, and keep Sengun and Green. Here are some things you need to know during the process:

1. We are talking about the long term, without any off-season reinforcements.

2. The integration of Amen Thompson will be another important issue Sengun, Green and Thompson are the three core players of the Rockets in the future. What these three people lack in common is shooting range, but this article only discusses the coexistence of Sengun and Green. . .

3. Without discussing whether Jabari Smith Jr. can play as the five, we question whether Green will need a center who can stretch the floor.

4. Green’s discussion will be much longer, because based on the current and future situation, it would be more meaningful to discuss the situation without Sengun in detail.

Photo credit: Getty Images

Keep only Sengun

The argument with Sengun at its core is simple: it performs extremely well.

Yes, Green exploded in his absence, which is easy to understand because Sengun’s absence in the penalty area gives him more room to break. However, from another perspective, if Green is replaced by Buddy Hield, will Sengun’s assists per game increase significantly?

To some extent, players are like genes, with dominant dominant genes and recessive genes. When Green and Sengun are on the court at the same time, Green often gives Sengun more of a way to lead the offense. There is a reason for this.

Single New Player Value (VORP) is as high as 5.8, while Green’s is 0.4 This represents the gap between the substitutes and the players themselves. This data will be able to see who is the most unique player to the team; plus/minus The value is 2.0, and Green is -1.8; in the end, Sengun’s (WS) winning shares were 14.4, and Green’s was only 5.5.

Of course you don’t have to like these advanced stats, but you can’t ignore that every important indicator that affects victory is that Sengun is much better than Green. Although we haven’t seen Sengun perform at a better level when Green is injured, all indicators point to Sengun being an elite player who can impact the game more.

But does this mean he is the right choice?

Just keep Green

After Sengun was injured, Jabari Smith Jr. moved to the center, and the tempo on the court became faster. However, if you break down the data, you will see that the Rockets originally wanted speed up and has tended to play faster after the All-Star Game.

Sengun’s inability to play at a fast pace is a mistake. When he grabs rebounds, he can use his passing vision to accelerate. He is one of the best big men in the NBA when it comes to releasing the ball and guiding passes.

After Sengun was injured, the Rockets team’s fast break score reached 18.7 points, surpassing the season average of 15.6 points, but again, the Rockets were already committed to speeding up the pace before Sengun was released. injured. So if Green performs well in a fast environment and wide space, then speed is not the deciding factor, but what about space?

Space is indeed an important factor for Green. After all, no matter how often he runs, basketball games are still played in the half court for most of the time.

Since Sengun was injured, Green seems more comfortable in the half-court offense, averaging 30.2 points per game, shooting 49.5% from the field, which is the data of the league’s first tier stars, and scoring 8.9 points in the area penalty, 7.2 points higher than season average, better.

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