Another poll that went wrong… Accurate Exit Survey (Comprehensive) | yunhap news

All three polls conducted during the ‘blinking period’ predicted ‘strongly out of the margin of error’

The broadcast exit poll was 0.6% ‘ultra-thin’… The ballot counting situation is also around 1%p ‘close to close’

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Ryu Mi-na = The prediction of the presidential election poll was wrong again.

The result of a prediction survey conducted by three public opinion polling agencies during the so-called ‘opinion poll’ period (6 days before Election Day) immediately after the 3/9 presidential election ended showed that candidate Yoon Seok-yeol of the People’s Power had outperformed Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung out of the margin of error. Attention was drawn to whether the prediction would be correct.

However, in a situation where the counting of votes exceeds 80% after midnight on the 10th, the two candidates are engaged in an unprecedented ‘super close’ battle at around 1 percentage point. On the other hand, the exit survey of the three broadcasting companies counts a 0.6% gap between the two, which is expected to be a relatively accurate forecast.

Previously, Gallup Korea conducted a survey of 2,199 adults nationwide on the 7th and 8th of last month (with a 95% confidence level, sampling error ±2.1 percentage points, response rate 18.1%), and as a result, 40% of Candidate Lee and 46% of Candidate Yoon It was announced the day before that it showed a gap of 6 percentage points.

Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jeong received 3% and other candidates 1%. 10% withheld responses.

The expected turnout rates calculated by estimating and distributing the voting probabilities of the members of the opinion-reserving class assuming a turnout of 76.7% were 44.4% for Lee and 52.0% for Candidate Yoon. Candidate Shim was 2.5% and other candidates 1.1%.

During the same period, in a predictive survey conducted by Research View of 1,000 people 18 years of age or older with intent to vote (±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate 6.1%), Candidate Lee was 44.5% and Candidate Yoon was 52.1%, 7.6% It was a point gap. Candidate Shim was 1.6% and other candidates 1.8%.

In a prediction survey (95% confidence level, sampling error ±1.8% points, response rate 11.9%) conducted by Realmeter on the 7th and 8th by the Media Herald for 3,000 voters nationwide, on the 7th, Candidate Lee had 46.5%, Candidate Yoon was counted with 50.2%. On the 8th, Candidate Lee had 47.1% and Candidate Yoon 50.2%.

The gap between the two candidates for the two days was 3.7 percentage points (7 days) and 3.1 percentage points (8 days), respectively.

The results of these polls were similar to the polling situation in terms of composition, but there was a big difference in the difference in the votes.

Again, the exit survey showed relatively accurate predictive power.

In the exit poll released by the three KBS, MBC, and SBS after the voting ended the day before, Candidate Yoon was 48.4% and Candidate Lee 47.8%, showing a close match with Candidate Yoon leading by 0.6 percentage points.

As of 2 a.m. on the same day, based on the 82.5% vote counting rate, the gap between Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee has fluctuated and maintained around 1 percentage point.

The situation was similar in the 19th presidential election in 2017.

In fact, the polls conducted just before Election Day in the election, in which Moon Jae-in, the Democratic Party’s candidate for the first time at the time, had been conducted in a ‘first-class, two-way’ structure, matched the wins and losses, but showed a huge difference in the percentage of votes received. On the other hand, the exit polls of broadcasters made relatively accurate predictions even on the turnout.

In the last presidential election, candidate Moon received 41.08 percent of the vote, Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Jun-pyo 24.03 percent and People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo 21.41 percent.

In this regard, the exit polls of the three broadcasting companies at the time estimated that candidate Moon received 41.4% of the vote, candidate Hong 23.3%, and candidate Ahn 21.8%. predicted in the

For more information on public opinion polls, please visit the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.

minaryo@yna.co.kr

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2022/03/10 02:17 Send