‘Appreciating the baht’ the highest in 10 months, the market opened at 33.10 baht / US dollar, CPI slowed down.

Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market Krung Thai Bank revealed that the baht opened this morning (13 January) at 33.10 baht per dollar.

highest “appreciation” in 10 months since March 2022 And appreciated from the end of the previous day at 33.36 baht per dollar. Check out the baht frame today. It is expected to be at 33.00-33.30 baht per dollar.

After yesterday evening (12 January), the US CPI inflation rate slowed as expected. has encouraged market players to believe that the Fed may cut the rate hike to +0.25% at its meeting in February.

Market players have recently given a 95% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by only +0.25% and also predict that the Fed may raise interest rates to 5.00% before cutting them to 4.50% later this year. This view of the market players has supported the US financial market. The Nasdaq technology stock index rose 0.64% while the S&P 500 closed 0.34%.

Regarding the trend of the baht, we see that the appreciation of the baht in the past was the main factors of the depreciation of the dollar Including the flow of gold profit taking transactions

for today in risk-averse market conditions We estimate that the baht has an opportunity to appreciate more. The baht may appreciate testing the important support zone of 33 baht per dollar. (After the baht appreciated below the level of 33.25 baht per dollar, our previous estimate)

However, we believe that the baht may not strengthen so strongly that it falls below key support levels as we begin to see more foreign players profiting from short USTHB positions. Exporters may not be in a rush to sell dollars. Because most of them may wait for the moment when the baht weakens, for example Weakened near the zone of 33.50 baht per dollar.

The recent high volatility of the baht reflects the need for more hedging tools. make us recommend Entrepreneurs should use a more diversified exchange rate hedging strategy. Especially the use of options, which will increase the efficiency of hedges during the period of heavy market volatility.

On the European stock market, the STOXX600 index continued to rise +0.63% following the rise in technology stocks and growth style stocks (ASML +1.1%, Adyen +1.1%) after US CPI inflation slowed as expected, leading market players to believe In addition, European stocks were also supported by gains in energy stocks (BP +1.4%, TotalEnergies +1.1%) following the rise in prices.. The latest crude hit $78.3 a barrel. for WTI crude and $83.8 per barrel. for Brent Crude Oil

in the bond market Views of market players who expect more Fed slows rate hikes As a result, the US 10-year bond yield continued to fall to 3.45%. Long-term government bonds, in particular, will be an attractive asset amid the global economic slowdown and the tight monetary policy of major central banks may be coming to an end. this year. makes us look Investors should wait for the moment when long-term bond yields increase somewhat in order to gradually accumulate. Rather than chasing the purchase price In the bond yield discount

in the currency market The dollar weakened against the major currencies. According to the market players who believe that the Fed will slow down the rate increase. After a recent slowdown in inflation, the dollar index (DXY) has recently fallen to 102.3 points, while other major currencies have appreciated, for example, the euro (EUR) has appreciated to 1.086 dollars per euro It strengthened Japanese yen (JPY) also to ¥ 129 per dollar. In addition, the drop in the dollar and the yield of the US 10-year bond has helped gold prices (COMEX Gold Contract for delivery July. Wed) can rise to prove the resistance zone around $1,900 per ounce. as we have previously assessed. And consider that the flow of gold profit taking is another factor that helps the baht appreciate.

For today, market players will wait to assess the US economic outlook. via the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index report One of the interesting pieces of information is the short-term and long-term inflation forecast report. Expectations), where both short-term and long-term consumer inflation expectations have continued to fall. This may reassure market players of the view that US inflation will actually slow down and will cause the Fed to delay accelerating interest rates.