Arizona Faces Warmer, Drier Spring with Increased Wildfire Risk
Arizona residents can expect a spring season that is warmer and drier than average, according to AccuWeather. The forecast, released Friday, February 9, 2026, predicts temperatures two to three degrees higher than historical averages from March to May.
The shift in weather patterns comes after what has been described as a “tame” winter for the state. As Arizona begins to warm up, experts are looking ahead to a spring season that will be markedly different from those in other parts of the country.
AccuWeather’s broader spring forecast indicates a divided nation, with colder weather lingering in the Northeast, Midwest, and northern plains. Southern states, meanwhile, are bracing for early warmth and a heightened risk of drought, though some early-season cold snaps are still possible.
The official start of spring is set for Friday, March 20, 2026, and will continue through Saturday, June 20, 2026.
The anticipated warmth in Arizona, coupled with a lack of spring storms, is expected to create dry conditions across the Southwest. This dryness raises concerns about an increased risk of wildfires throughout the region. AccuWeather reporters have warned of potential fire breakouts due to the developing drought conditions.
The forecast highlights a broader trend of warming temperatures across the Southwest, beginning as early as February. This early arrival of warmer weather contributes to the elevated drought risk.
AccuWeather’s predictions are based on data gathered through satellite monitoring of land, sea, and air activity, combined with historical averages and current weather phenomena. However, the organization acknowledges that seasonal forecasts are inherently complex and accuracy can vary due to the length of the prediction timeframe.
The lack of rainfall is a key concern for the region. With warmer temperatures expected to arrive quickly, the Southwest is facing a high risk of drought this spring, potentially exacerbating wildfire dangers.
While the forecast points to a generally warmer and drier spring, it’s important to remember that predicting an entire season is a challenging task. AccuWeather emphasizes that its forecasts are based on the best available data and analysis, but conditions can change.
