Armenians & Azerbaijan: Beyond a Transactional Peace Deal

The fragile hope of Peace: Examining the Armenia-Azerbaijan Agreement adn its Implications

On Aug. 8,as the White House hosted the trilateral signing of a peace agreement between Armenia,Azerbaijan,and the United States,a group of Armenian high school students from Los Angeles and I paused to watch the news conference. Their faces – curious, cautious, and skeptical – mirrored a sentiment across the Armenian diaspora: hope tempered by doubt, pride shadowed by mistrust. This agreement, brokered by the Trump administration, represents a complex and controversial step in a decades-long conflict, raising questions about justice, accountability, and the future of the region.

A History of Conflict

The conflict’s roots run deep. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal war over nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan’s borders but with a majority Armenian population who claimed self-determination. Azerbaijanis call it Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenians call it Artsakh. A ceasefire held for years but left core disputes unresolved – over territory, governance, and the right of self-determination for the region’s Armenian population.

War erupted again in 2020. Backed by Turkey and armed with advanced weapons, Azerbaijan gained control of much of the disputed territory. The Trump administration did not meaningfully intervene. For Armenians, it was a devastating loss – of land, security, trust, and cultural heritage.For Azerbaijan, it was a political and military victory that shifted the balance of power.

The Blockade and its Consequences

In December 2022,Azerbaijan launched a blockade of the Lachin corridor – the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh to Armenia – tightening its grip on a region already reeling from war. For the next 10 months, gas, electricity, internet, food, and medicine were cut off to 120,000 Armenians, many of them children and elderly. Families rationed bread. Surgeries were postponed. Schools closed.

I visited the region during this time and stood at the Armenian end of the corridor,witnessing a silent convoy of trucks loaded with supplies,their drivers uncertain if they would be allowed to deliver their cargo. The air was heavy with frustration and helplessness.The International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to reopen the corridor, but Baku ignored it.

the september 2023 Offensive and Mass Displacement

Despite President Biden’s official recognition of the Armenian genocide – a moral milestone decades overdue – his administration failed to prevent Azerbaijan’s full-scale military assault on Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh in September 2023. The attack lasted just 24 hours but forced more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians – virtually the entire population of the region – to flee their homes. Centuries-old communities were emptied almost overnight, and families left behind homes, businesses, and places of worship, uncertain if they would ever return.

A Transactional Peace?

I’ve felt conflicted watching the Trump administration’s peace-making efforts. on one hand, it’s positive to see the United States prioritize Armenian issues on the world stage. On the other, this moment feels hollow.This reflects a deeper problem: U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus has long lacked consistency, accountability, and the will to confront aggressors, nonetheless of which party is in power. Armenians have historically had few friends and weak depiction in Washington.

This agreement is undeniably transactional. Armenia gains U.S. security assurances and cooperation on artificial intelligence, including support for an emerging AI hub, intended to anchor its Western trajectory. Azerbaijan receives de facto immunity for its actions against the Armenians of Artsakh, arms sales, and a transit corridor to Turkey. The United States gains a geopolitical trophy: Trump’s name on the corridor to Turkey, leverage in the region, and an apparent diplomatic “win” to market domestically.

Unresolved Issues and Future Concerns

But this deal is far from complete. It omits the right of return for displaced Armenians to Artsakh, ignores the destruction of Armenian towns, homes, and businesses, makes no commitment to preserve Artsakh’s cultural heritage, and says nothing about prisoners of war. For many in the Armenian diaspora, these are glaring and unacceptable omissions.

the newly named Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, the link from Azerbaijan to Turkey, is billed as a neutral, cooperative route administered by the U.S. Though, it raises serious questions about Armenia’s sovereignty. The corridor will run through Armenia’s southern Syunik province – its only direct land link to Iran – and could weaken Yerevan’s ability to fully control its borders, regulate trade, and ensure unimpeded access to a vital southern lifeline.

A Slim Hope for the Future

At best, the Aug. 8 agreement offers a slim hope for a real resolution of the region’s conflicts. If implemented fully, it could help build a more stable and prosperous Armenia for future generations. The challenge lies in ensuring this deal yields U.S. investment in reconstruction, accountability, and lasting security, something more than a photo op.

Even incomplete, flawed agreements can create openings. Armenia’s pivot west, which the deal underlines, carries risk, but it also offers the possibility of stronger security partnerships, economic renewal, and cultural preservation, if those benefits reach the people who have endured war and blockade, not just the leaders who signed the papers. In recent years, Armenia has seen a surprising economic boom, driven by tech investment, tourism, and a wave of returning diaspora talent. This fragile momentum could be strengthened or squandered depending on what comes next.

I respect President Trump for pursuing peace agreements – leaders everywhere should make peace their highest priority. The Armenian American students I met on Aug. 8, who carry the inherited pain of their parents and grandparents, deserve more than symbolic gestures or transactional deals.They deserve justice and the freedom to envision a better future for their ancestors’ homeland. Ultimately, that is the hope we all share.

Key Data: Armenia and Azerbaijan – A Comparative Overview