ASEAN Agenda: US-China Tensions & Myanmar Crisis
Asean Faces Critical Test as US-China Rivalry Intensifies at Annual Meetings
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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is preparing for a crucial series of meetings – the Asean Ministerial Meeting (AMM) and related summits – against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and the potential return of a more transactional US foreign policy under Donald Trump. Experts predict the gatherings will reveal much about Asean’s unity, strategic direction, and ability to navigate a rapidly changing global landscape.
The AMM, along with the East Asia Summit and Asean Regional Forum, is expected to be a key arena for US-China rivalry. Analysts anticipate China will position itself as a stable partner, contrasting with perceptions of unpredictability surrounding a potential second Trump administration.
“The Asean-US dialog will be closely watched with Trump’s approach tending to be more transactional and less predictable,” noted Associate Professor Khoo Ying Hooi from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.This shift in US policy, coupled with proposed tariffs targeting key Asean economies – Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines - presents a meaningful challenge.
Abdolreza Alami, director and co-founder of the Asia West East Center, emphasized the threat posed by these tariffs to Asean’s export-driven economies. He stated the US-Asean dialogue will be “a vital platform for negotiations with American officials to mitigate the impact of the tariffs.”
Asean aims to maintain neutrality and “Asean centrality,” balancing relationships with both superpowers through separate dialogues. Though, the intensifying competition, notably in the south China Sea and the technology sector, places the region in a delicate position.
Key Issues on the Agenda: Myanmar, South China Sea, and Economic Resilience
Beyond the US-China dynamic, several critical issues will dominate the AMM agenda. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar, now in its fourth year, is a major concern, with growing pressure on Asean to demonstrate tangible progress.
“There is only so much the region can keep repeating statements without follow-through,” Khoo warned. Malaysia is expected to be a strong advocate for renewed efforts to address the crisis,hoping continued dialogue will exert pressure on the Myanmar government.The South China sea dispute will also be a focal point, highlighting the need for Asean to adopt a stronger and more strategic position. Experts question whether Asean can present a unified front on this and othre challenging issues.
“In short, this AMM will really show us where Asean stands not just in terms of unity, but on how it is adjusting to a much more volatile and transactional global environment, especially with the US shifting gears again,” khoo explained.
Economic resilience is another key theme. Julia Roknifard, senior lecturer at Taylor’s University School of Law and Governance, believes Asean’s collective weight will be crucial in addressing the US tariff challenge. “Each country will share its response to the US tariff policy and they will see how Asean countries can align themselves,” she saeid.
asean’s Future Direction
The AMM will serve as a critical indicator of Asean’s ability to adapt to a more complex and unpredictable world. The meetings will reveal whether the organization can maintain its unity, strengthen its strategic position, and effectively address pressing regional challenges.
The four-day event, which includes the South-East Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Commission meeting, the 15th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and the 32nd Asean Regional Forum, will also feature over 10 Post-Ministerial Conferences with key partners including China, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Prime Minister Datuk seri Anwar ibrahim will officiate the official AMM opening ceremony following his participation in the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil. The outcome of these meetings will undoubtedly shape Asean’s trajectory in the years to come.