ASEAN on High Alert: How the US Election Will Shape the Region’s Future

The US has recently been ASEAN’s largest source of foreign investment, has close military ties with many countries in the bloc and sees Southeast Asia as an important counterweight to China. So what will this relationship look like under the administration of Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris?

Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris. Photo: Reuters

Although Southeast Asia is often considered a key pillar of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, President Joe Biden was absent for two consecutive years at the ASEAN-US Summit in Indonesia (2023). and Laos (2024).

Although President Biden’s absence from the Laos Summit may be understandable considering the demands of the approaching presidential election, observers also assess that this decision reflects a trend broader direction in US policy towards ASEAN. Even as the Presidential election is approaching, both the Democratic and Republican candidates have not made many statements about Southeast Asia – a region that Washington is keen to take advantage of in the context of competition with China.

However, in terms of comprehensive strategic partnership, it shows that US and ASEAN relations have still made positive and significant progress in recent times. Economically, the US is currently the largest foreign direct investor in ASEAN, with the total trade value between the two sides reaching 500 billion USD by 2023.

Since 2002, the US has provided more than 14.7 billion USD in economic, health and security aid to countries in the region, affirming its indispensable role in the comprehensive development of ASEAN. Military defense cooperation between the US and regional countries, especially the Philippines, has been strengthened in recent times.

ASEAN countries are also closely monitoring potential changes in US policies that could impact trade, investment and regional geopolitical stability including: Trade and tax policies; US-China competition; Financial markets and currency fluctuations; Green energy and climate change; Supply chain restructuring and regional opportunities.

Assessing the policies of US presidential candidates towards the region, analysts say that, if elected, former President Donald Trump’s second term could come with large tariff increases and the possibility of the potential for another trade war, with major impacts on production networks across Asia. The policies could impact Southeast Asia’s export sector and increase pressure on ASEAN nations to choose sides if China-US competition escalates.

Ms. Kamala Harris is expected to take steps further than the path outlined by President Joe Biden in the region, targeting sanctions on selected industries considered important to security. America’s economic security. Ms. Harris’s administration will also pursue an approach that combines diplomacy, multilateralism, a focus on human issues and democratic freedom.

Ms. Harris’s consultative multilateral approach is considered to be more “comfortable” with Asia in general and Southeast Asia in particular, making the environment more stable and predictable. In terms of policy, Ms. Kamala Harris can focus and pay more attention to this area. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is considered more assertive about disputed areas at sea, which can create tension and confrontation in some hot spots. Mr. Trump’s administration will focus heavily on economic issues, trade agreements and security treaties that directly benefit the United States.

However, Asian and American officials, diplomats, businesses and research groups said that none of the candidates offered policies that could be considered ideal for Asia. In fact, both candidates have similar approaches, maintaining the trend of increasing trade restrictions and strategic competition with China, expanding trade and technology controls.

Mr. Trump will apply an America First approach, and Ms. Harris cannot bring the world back to 1995 when the WTO was established, with a push to reduce trade barriers and expand global trade. . Therefore the difference between the two candidates for the region is not “direction” but only “intensity”.

For ASEAN countries, the future trajectory of the relationship with the US will be different in each country, largely driven by domestic dynamics. In general, ASEAN countries will continue to strengthen relations with the US while trying to rebalance relations with China. Many countries in the region expressed hope for continuity in US policy towards the region but also said they were prepared for significant change after the US election, ready to cooperate with whoever wins. in the upcoming US Presidential election.