Super Bowl LX wasn’t just a victory for the Seattle Seahawks over the New England Patriots on the field. it was a record-breaking event for the burgeoning world of online prediction markets. Kalshi, a platform allowing users to trade on the outcomes of future events, reported exceeding $1 billion in trading volume on Sunday, a staggering 2,700% increase year-over-year. The surge was largely fueled by intense interest in the halftime performance of Bad Bunny, with trading related to the artist reaching an impressive $150 million, according to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.
The sheer scale of activity surrounding Bad Bunny’s performance highlights a significant shift in how audiences are engaging with live events. Rather than simply watching and discussing, fans are now actively betting – or, more accurately, trading – on specific details, from the artist’s opening song to potential guest appearances. Mansour told CNBC that over $100 million was wagered on which song Bad Bunny would perform first, and an additional $45 million was traded on predictions about who would join him on stage. This represents a substantial increase from last year’s Super Bowl, which saw a total trading volume of just $27 million on the platform.
Kalshi’s model differs significantly from traditional gambling. Users aren’t betting against a “house”; instead, they are trading with each other, effectively making predictions and profiting if those predictions come true. The platform earns revenue through trading fees. This peer-to-peer structure, as Kalshi and competitor Polymarket argue, sets them apart from casinos and sportsbooks, though the lines are increasingly blurred as the industry evolves. The rise of these platforms comes after the US Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting in 2018, opening the door for greater regulation and innovation in the gambling landscape.
However, the rapid growth hasn’t been without its challenges. The massive influx of users on Super Bowl Sunday caused delays in processing deposits for some customers. Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi’s co-founder, addressed the issue on social media, assuring users that their money was safe but acknowledging that processing times would be longer than usual. “Your money is safe and on the way, it will just take longer to land,” she wrote. This incident underscores the infrastructure demands of handling such large-scale trading volume and the need for robust systems to ensure a smooth user experience.
Beyond the technical hurdles, Kalshi is also facing increased scrutiny regarding the potential for insider trading. The platform announced additional surveillance and enforcement efforts last week, prior to the Super Bowl, to identify and remove accounts suspected of engaging in illicit activity. Mansour acknowledged the risk, stating that it’s “very real for the stock market as well,” and emphasized the importance of maintaining the integrity of the platform. This comes as skepticism around prediction markets builds, with regulators and industry observers questioning the fairness and transparency of these relatively new financial instruments.
The success of Kalshi during Super Bowl LX demonstrates the growing appetite for event-based trading and the potential for prediction markets to become a significant force in the entertainment and financial worlds. Mansour believes Kalshi was “the biggest brand of the Super Bowl this year, without running a Super Bowl ad,” attributing their success to the product itself and the engaging experience it offers users. The $150 million traded on Bad Bunny’s halftime show alone is a testament to the power of pop culture to drive activity on these platforms.
The platform’s growth also raises questions about the future of fan engagement. Will trading on events become a mainstream activity, rivaling traditional forms of betting and social media interaction? And how will regulators balance the need to foster innovation with the imperative to protect investors and maintain market integrity? These are questions that will likely be debated in the coming months as prediction markets continue to gain traction and attract attention from both the industry and the public.
The record-breaking Super Bowl trading volume positions Kalshi as a key player in this evolving landscape. The company’s ability to capitalize on the excitement surrounding major events, coupled with its unique trading model, suggests that it is well-positioned for continued growth. However, navigating the regulatory challenges and ensuring a reliable user experience will be crucial to its long-term success. The platform’s performance on , serves as a compelling case study for the potential – and the complexities – of the future of event-based prediction markets.
