Stock Dimension – Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited assesses that the baht this week is likely to move in the range of 36.40-37.00 baht / dollar, compared to last week. The baht closed stronger at 36.61 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 36.25-36.79 baht/dollar, while the dollar strengthened against all major currencies last week. The yen hit a new 34-year low and the euro fell to a five-month low, while US bond yields rose after US inflation rose above expectations for a third straight month in March, prices rose consumer general (CPI) 3.5 % compared to the same period last year. This was the highest rate in 6 months. the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates at 4.00% but signaled they may lower interest rates in June. Foreign investors bought 7,918 million baht of Thai stocks but bonds were sold for a net of 16,566 million baht.
For this week’s overview Krungsri Global Markets Group believes that after the US inflation and consumer spending numbers were stronger than expected, the market has led to the market revising its forecast of the timing of the first interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) to February from June In this situation the dollar is expected to continue to gain support in the short term Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and the risk of increasing energy prices and lagging global economic growth will further stimulate demand for the dollar.
Although the situation within the country The MPC is of the opinion that the economy of Thailand in 2024 is likely to expand higher than the previous year due to private consumption and tourism. Including momentum from government spending during the rest of the year. Meanwhile, exports gradually recovered. And the MPC estimates that headline inflation will return to the target range by the end of this year. Although 2 members of the committee agree that the interest should be reduced to 2.25% to be consistent with the economy’s potential to expand lower and to help ease the burden of debtors to some extent. The majority of committee members were of the opinion that the effectiveness of monetary policy in solving structural problems was limited. We believe that the MPC’s latest approach as a whole is not in a rush to cut interest rates. However, there is an opportunity to cut interest rates this year if the economic outlook changes from the MPC’s assessment.
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