Baht Strengthens Amidst Foreign Bond Buying and Positive Stock Market

Bank of Thailand Optimistic About Economic Growth in 2024

By Papassorn Ongpichetmetha/Kasamaphon Kitti Relationship

According to a money manager from Bangkok Bank, the baht closed higher tonight at 36.41/42 baht/dollar, compared to its opening this morning at 36.52 baht/dollar. This strengthening is attributed to foreigners buying about 16,000 million baht of Thai bonds and positive stock market performance. The baht is also expected to gain strength alongside other regional currencies due to China’s economic stimulus measures. Financial managers predict that the baht’s movement tomorrow will range between 36.25 and 36.50 baht/dollar.

Several factors influence the baht’s valuation, including the yen which stands at 148.63/67 ¥/dollar (compared to the morning’s 148.66 ¥/dollar) and the euro which is at 1.0608/0612 dollar/Euro (rising from 1.0603 dollar/Euro earlier in the day). Moreover, the SET Index closed today at 1,455.99 points, with a 1.50% increase, and the summary of trading volume shows that foreigners bought a net amount of 3,052.85 million baht.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 5/2023, expressing confidence that the economy will surpass the 4% mark in 2024. The government’s stimulus measures play a crucial role in this projection. While distribution of money may have a lower impact compared to direct government spending and investment, the BoT believes that the Thai economy will continue to improve in the coming year.

Chinese tourist arrivals during the recent long holiday in China have exceeded expectations. With an average of 10,000-11,000 people per day, it is anticipated that Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand will reach the target of 4-4.4 million people this year. Despite the unfortunate incident at Siam Paragon, which had minimal impact on tourism numbers, the industry remains optimistic about the high volatility of the baht in the last quarter of this year. Hopes are high for the baht to strengthen at 35 baht, particularly considering signs of a slowing US economy and the peak season for Thai tourism extending into early 2024. Financial analysts estimate that the average baht at the end of this year will be within the range of 34-35 baht/dollar.

Furthermore, experts recommend keeping an eye on energy prices, the impact of El Niño, and economic stimulus measures in 2024. The recovery of Chinese consumer spending, which has not yet reached pre-COVID levels, and the likelihood of ongoing inflation in the Eurozone are also important factors to consider.

In unrelated news, Israeli military spokespersons have reported an increase in the death toll in Israel from Hamas attacks, with at least 1,200 casualties.

InfoQuest News Agency (11 Oct. ’23)

A money manager from Bangkok Bank revealed that the baht closed tonight at 36.41/42 baht/dollar, strengthening from the market opening this morning at 36.52 baht/dollar.During the day, the baht moved in a range of 36.40 – 36.52 baht / Today, the direction of baht has returned to strengthen because foreigners are buying about 16,000 million baht of Thai bonds and the stock market is positive. Along with news that China will stimulate the economy, the baht and regional currencies will strengthen. and tends to move in an appreciating direction For tonight, wait to follow the Producer Price Index (PPI) in September of the United States. Financial managers The range of movement of the baht tomorrow is estimated at 36.25 – 36.50 baht/dollar * Important factors – There’ r Yen at 148.63/67 ¥/dollar from the morning at 148.66 ¥/dollar – The euro is at 1.0608/0612 dollar /Euro from the morning level of 1.0603 dollar / Euro – The SET Index closed today at 1,455.99 points, an increase of 21.54 points (+1.50%), trading value 53,304.77 million baht – Summary of trading volume by group Foreigners bought a net amount of 3,052.85 million baht (SET+MAI) – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) published the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 5/2023, following the momentum of government policy to put additional pressure against inflation Ready to see that measures to distribute money have a lower impact than direct government spending and investment – the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is confident that the Thailand’s economy in 2024 will expand well beyond the 4% level by combining factors from the stimulus measures the government’s economy has also included. Regardless of the form of the economic stimulus measures, in what direction will the Thai economy be heading next year? There is a tendency to improve better from this year onwards. Regarding the 10,000 baht digital wallet measure, the BoT has considered the uncertainty of the measure, seeing that this measure will become a factor that creates higher risks. But this was not the main factor considered by the MPC in the last round – TAT revealed that during the long holiday or Golden Week in China, Chinese tourists arrive. 10,000-11,000 people / day, before there was no visa-free measure, there were 5,000-7,000 people / day, and now Chinese tourists reach about 8,000-9,000 people / day, so it is expected that Chinese tourists coming in this year. Thailand as targeted 4 – 4.4 million people, from the beginning of the year until the beginning of October, 2.5 million people had visited China and despite the shooting situation in Siam Paragon It had little impact – the industry financial business Looking at the baht in the last quarter of this year, there will be high volatility. mainly from foreign factors Hoping for an opportunity to come back and strengthen at 35 baht from signs that the US economy is slowing down. In addition, the peak season for Thai tourism continues into early next year, helping to push the current account balance into the positive. Estimated that the average baht at the end of the year varies in the range of 34-35 baht / dollar For 2024, keep an eye on energy prices – results. Impact of El Niño – Economic stimulus measures – Analysts reveal that Chinese consumer spending has not yet recovered to the same level as before the outbreak of COVID-19 – European Central Bank (ECB) survey results revealed today Household inflation The Eurozone is likely to continue. Slightly above the ECB’s target range of 2% for another 3 years – Israeli military spokesman Said that today The death toll in Israel from Hamas attacks has risen to at least 1,200.

By Papassorn Ongpichetmetha/Kasamaphon Kitti Relationship

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