Bank of Korea “Economic contraction in the US, Europe, China and emerging countries next year”

Risk factors include economic fragmentation, a delayed recovery in China, and the possibility of a financial crisis in emerging countries.

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Shin Ho-kyung = Next year, it is predicted that not only the world’s three major economies, including the United States, Europe and China, but also the economy of emerging countries contract together.

The Bank of Korea, in its report entitled “World Economic Characteristics and Risk Factors for the Next Year” on the 4th said, “The economies of major economies such as the United States, the euro area, and China, have been driving the world economy, and emerging economies are expected to contract in 2023, which is a period of recovery after the outbreak of the previous crisis. It is different from the aspect of “.

In the recovery process after the financial crisis, emerging countries made up for the sluggishness of developed countries, and in 2012, when the European debt crisis and the real estate collapse overlapped, the United States surpassed its potential growth rate and fill the gap.

In the case of the United States next year, positive growth (+) is possible, but it is expected to fall below the potential growth rate due to financial tightening, and it is analyzed that the euro area is very likely to grow negatively (- ). ) due to sluggish supply and demand and the shock of rising interest rates.

The slowdown in China’s growth is also difficult to resolve in a short period of time due to the effects of insolvency related to real estate and the zero Covid-19 policy.

Economic contraction and financial tightening in large countries puts a burden on the economies of neighboring countries as well, and in the case of emerging countries in particular, their ability to respond to Corona 19 is weak, and if the result of price adjustments raw material amid the added global economic slowdown, there is a high possibility that next year’s growth will weaken.

In particular, the BOK identified ▲ fragmentation triggered by the US-China trade conflict ▲ delayed China’s growth recovery ▲ the possibility of a financial crisis in emerging countries with current account deficits as specific risk factors on for the global economy next year.

In its report, the BOK said, “Recent moves in major countries to adjust the pace of tightening and signs of easing China’s quarantine policies are upside factors for the global economy.” We need to be ready,” he said.

shk999@yna.co.kr

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2022/12/04 12:00 Sent