Bank Predicts OCR Rise to 2.25% by Christmas

September 30, 2025 Victoria Sterling -Business Editor Business

Here’s a summary of the key information from the provided‌ text:

* Recession Forecast: ASB is predicting a harder-hitting recession then previously expected for‍ New Zealand.
* RBNZ Action: ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley believes the Reserve bank needs to lower interest rates⁤ more aggressively to counteract the effects‍ of past tightening.
* Government Constraints: Fiscal support from the government is unlikely due to ongoing efforts to manage the budget after increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Positive signs: Lower interest rates are⁤ starting to ​help household budgets. Spending on durable goods is increasing, and exports (dairy, beef, ‌kiwifruit) are strong. The housing market is seeing increased demand.
* modest Recovery: The recovery is expected to be slow and steady ⁤(“indie pop/soft rock”) rather than a rapid one (“rockstar recovery”). It will‌ be influenced by global trade,domestic demand,housing,and the labor market.

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