BDMS Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Increased EBITDA Margin in 2023
Despite a 9% year-to-date decrease in stock price, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) has announced a promising outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023. The company’s net profit is expected to grow by 12-18% year-on-year, although it may experience a 6-10% quarter-on-quarter decline to 3.5-3.7 billion baht, which is approximately 4-5% higher than the consensus estimate.
Furthermore, the company has adjusted its revenue target to grow by 9-10% in 2023, coupled with an anticipated EBITDA margin of 24%. BDMS attributes this growth to several factors, including nationwide revenue growth from seasonal patient numbers, increased membership numbers, and a rise in international patient revenue.
Nationwide Revenue Growth and International Patient Influx
BDMS anticipates a significant increase in revenue due to seasonal patient numbers, particularly from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza cases in October. Additionally, the company expects growth from specialist disease centers and the Social Security Office, which is projected to see a rise in the number of members from 700,000 at the end of 2022 to 790,000 in 2023.
Moreover, BDMS is optimistic about the influx of patients from abroad and medical tourists, as evidenced by a notable increase in revenue from patients in the Middle East (+31% yoy), China (+38%), and CLMV (+13%) in October. These developments have contributed to a 19% year-on-year growth in international patient revenue for the company, particularly in the third quarter of 2023.
Given these positive indicators, BDMS continues to maintain a strong recommendation, with fundamentals resulting in a Total Return to Shareholders (TTR) increasing to 42% and a BUY recommendation.
Note: This article has been edited for clarity and conciseness.
But it is 4-5% higher than the consensus estimate, which means that 4Q23 net profit will grow 12-18% yoy but fall 6-10% qoq to 3.5-3.7 billion baht. Stock price down 9% YTD, which is not reasonable considering Better fundamentals has resulted in TTR increasing to 42%, maintaining a BUY recommendation.
Adjusted revenue target to grow 9-10% in 2023, and EBITDA margin 24%
BDMS increases revenue growth from the previous 6-8%, supported by nationwide revenue growth from seasonal patient numbers (RSV, flu) in October, specialist disease centers and SSO (adjusted per capita income, the number of members will increase from 700,000 at the end of 2022 to 790,000 in 2023), and there will be an increase in the number of patients coming in from abroad and medical tourists. In October, the company’s revenue increased from patients in the Middle East (+31% yoy), China (+38%) and CLMV (+13%), which led to international patient revenue growing by 19% yoy in October . (close to 3Q23)
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