Beijing is preparing for a significant legislative session next week, signaling a potential shift in economic policy and a renewed focus on domestic stability. The Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) will convene on and , setting the stage for broader discussions at the annual “Two Sessions” gathering, which begins shortly thereafter.
The upcoming meetings are expected to address a softening in domestic demand and outline details of fiscal stimulus measures aimed at bolstering economic growth amidst ongoing global trade tensions. According to sources, Beijing is considering revising down its annual consumer price inflation target to around 2%, the lowest level in more than two decades, a move that implicitly acknowledges modest domestic demand.
The NPC Standing Committee’s agenda, as outlined in a meeting presided over by Zhao Leji on , includes a review of the committee’s work, a draft agenda for the fourth session of the 14th NPC, and proposed lists for the presidium and secretary-general. Lawmakers will also consider draft revisions to the law on certified public accountants and a draft law concerning fire and rescue personnel. A draft law on social assistance is also slated for deliberation.
The “Two Sessions” – comprising the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the NPC – represent a crucial moment in China’s political calendar. The CPPCC meeting will commence on , followed by the NPC session on . These gatherings typically involve presentations of work reports by key leaders, including the premier, top legislator, and chief justice, alongside reviews of the government’s annual budget and development plans.
The anticipated downward revision of the inflation target to 2% is particularly noteworthy. This figure would function more as a ceiling than a strict target, reflecting the deflationary pressures currently impacting the Chinese economy. Data indicates that nominal GDP growth has been lagging behind real GDP growth for seven consecutive quarters through the end of 2024, a trend that underscores the challenges facing policymakers.
Beyond economic indicators, the Two Sessions are expected to reveal plans for increased spending on defense and technological development, as well as measures to support the private sector. These announcements come at a time of heightened geopolitical competition and a growing emphasis on self-reliance in key technological areas.
The legislative agenda also includes a review of public complaints handled by NPC bodies in 2025 and draft measures to enhance the oversight mechanisms of people’s congresses at all levels. This suggests a continued focus on improving governance and responsiveness to public concerns.
The meetings will also provide a platform for government ministers to engage with the public through interviews and press conferences, offering opportunities to clarify policies and address pressing issues. This engagement is seen as vital for maintaining public trust and managing expectations.
While the specific growth target for 2025 remains to be announced, it will undoubtedly be a focal point of attention. Although GDP growth is no longer the sole measure of economic success, it remains a key indicator of the country’s overall economic performance. The target will be closely watched by international investors and observers seeking to gauge China’s economic trajectory.
Recent activity from the International Legislative Development (ILD) suggests a potential expansion of its mandate, though the specifics of this expansion remain unclear. This development could have implications for the NPC’s role in international legal cooperation and exchange.
The Two Sessions are not merely a domestic political event; they have significant international ramifications. Decisions made during these meetings will shape China’s economic policies, foreign relations, and overall development path, impacting not only the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese citizens but also the global landscape.
