Belgium Faces 21% Surge in Cancer Cases by 2035: Urgent Prevention Needed

Belgium Faces Sharp Rise in Cancer Diagnoses by 2035, Health Experts Warn

Belgium is bracing for a significant increase in cancer cases over the next decade, with health authorities projecting an additional 44 new diagnoses per day by 2035 compared to 2023. The surge, driven by demographic shifts and persistent risk factors, underscores the urgent need for reinforced prevention efforts, according to the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR) and public health officials.

Projected Increase of 21% by 2035

The Belgian Cancer Registry’s latest projections indicate that the country will see a 21% rise in cancer diagnoses by 2035. This translates to approximately 80,000 new cases annually by that year, up from 66,000 in 2023. The increase is largely attributed to an aging population and the growing proportion of elderly individuals, who are at higher risk for developing cancer. However, experts caution that lifestyle factors—such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, and physical inactivity—continue to play a critical role in driving the disease’s prevalence.

“It is necessary to repeat the messages of prevention,” emphasized the Belgian Cancer Registry in a statement published by L’Avenir. The call for renewed public health campaigns reflects concerns that progress in reducing risk factors has stalled, even as medical advancements improve survival rates for many cancer types.

Demographics and Risk Factors

The rise in cancer cases is not uniform across all demographics. Data from the Belgian Cancer Registry shows that while the overall risk of cancer has remained relatively stable for men—with a slight annual decline of 0.1% since 2004—women have experienced a steady increase in risk, averaging 0.6% per year. These trends mask significant variations by cancer type. For instance, lung cancer and head and neck cancers are declining in men but rising sharply among women, likely due to historical differences in smoking rates between genders.

Conversely, stomach, colon, and ovarian cancers have seen a decline in incidence, thanks in part to improved screening programs and early detection. However, cancers of the skin, liver, and pancreas are on the rise in both sexes, reflecting the impact of environmental exposures, metabolic disorders, and other emerging risk factors.

The highest incidence of cancer is observed in the 80-84 age group, with men over 55 accounting for a disproportionate share of diagnoses. Before age 55, women are more likely to be diagnosed with cancer, a trend that shifts in older age groups as male incidence rates climb.

Regional Disparities and Screening Gaps

Cancer incidence also varies by region within Belgium. The Flemish Region reports the highest unadjusted incidence rates for men, followed by the Walloon Region and the Brussels Capital Region. Among women, incidence rates are similar in Flanders and Wallonia, with Brussels showing lower rates. These disparities may reflect differences in population density, access to healthcare, and participation in screening programs.

Belgium currently operates three organized cancer screening programs: for breast, colorectal, and cervical cancers. Participation in these programs is critical for early detection and improved outcomes. However, public health officials have noted that uptake remains uneven, particularly among lower-income and marginalized communities. Expanding access to screening and tailoring outreach efforts to underserved populations are identified as key priorities in addressing the projected rise in cases.

Survival Rates Show Progress, But Challenges Remain

While the rising number of diagnoses is cause for concern, survival rates for many cancers have improved significantly over the past two decades. For the most common cancers, such as breast and prostate cancer, five-year net survival rates now stand at 93% and 99%, respectively. Colorectal cancer survival has also improved, rising from 63% to 70% over the past 20 years.

Lung cancer, however, remains a major challenge. Despite advances in treatment, five-year net survival rates for lung cancer are significantly lower, at 35% for women and 27% for men. These figures represent an improvement—up 15 percentage points for women and 12 points for men since the period 2004-2008—but underscore the need for continued investment in early detection and innovative therapies.

The Belgian Cancer Registry, established in 2005, has played a pivotal role in tracking these trends. With two decades of reliable data now available, the registry provides a comprehensive picture of cancer’s evolving landscape in Belgium. Its projections for 2035 serve as both a warning and a roadmap for policymakers, healthcare providers, and the public.

Prevention as the First Line of Defense

Public health experts emphasize that prevention remains the most effective tool in combating the projected rise in cancer cases. Key strategies include:

• Expanding tobacco control measures, particularly targeting young women, among whom smoking rates have not declined as rapidly as in men.
• Promoting healthier diets and physical activity to reduce obesity-related cancers, such as those of the liver and pancreas.
• Enhancing vaccination programs, including the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, to prevent infection-related cancers.
• Strengthening workplace protections to limit exposure to carcinogens, such as asbestos and certain chemicals.
• Encouraging participation in organized screening programs, particularly for colorectal, breast, and cervical cancers.

“The data clearly shows that while we are making progress in treating cancer, we cannot afford to become complacent about prevention,” said a spokesperson for the Belgian Cancer Registry. “Every individual has a role to play in reducing their risk, and every policymaker must prioritize public health measures that address the root causes of this disease.”

Looking Ahead: A Call to Action

The projections for 2035 serve as a stark reminder that cancer remains one of Belgium’s most pressing public health challenges. While the aging population is an inevitable driver of increased diagnoses, lifestyle changes and targeted interventions can mitigate some of the projected rise. The Belgian government, healthcare providers, and advocacy groups are urged to collaborate on comprehensive strategies that combine prevention, early detection, and equitable access to care.

For individuals, the message is clear: adopting healthier habits, participating in screening programs, and staying informed about cancer risks can make a meaningful difference. As Belgium prepares for the challenges ahead, the collective response to this growing health threat will determine the trajectory of cancer’s impact on the nation.

For those affected by cancer or seeking support, resources are available through the Foundation Against Cancer (French) and Kanker.be (Dutch).