Dao Guarantees Stated in the analysis today (13 February 2024) that Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited or BEM Recommend buying with a target of 10.40 baht by Ridership January 2024, returning to growth compared to the previous month. After a long holiday Although the expressway is stable, BEM reported that electric rail passengers in January 2024 were 420,000 journeys / day (13% growth compared to the same period last year, 5% growth from its compared to the previous month), while expressway users made 1.11 million trips. /day (Grown by 1% compared to the same period last year, and decreased by 2% compared to the previous month) (Source: BEM)
The DAOL is consumer neutral in January, with electric train passengers returning to expand. Compare with the previous month After long holidays and more working days while general expressway users have remained stable.
In terms of the general trend from now on, we probably estimate that electric train passengers will continue to grow. Benefits of developing more real estate projects along the power line. Opening of a new electric train route And the outlook for the tourism sector is better than expected, maintaining net profit in 2023/2024 at 3.2 billion baht / 3.7 billion baht (33% growth compared to the period last year and a growth of 14% compared to the same period last year).
4Q23 net profit is estimated at 830 million baht (growing 38% compared to the same period last year and falling 14% compared to the previous quarter), higher than the original estimate of 620 -700 million baht, with profit expanding compared to the same period a year ago This follows the recovery of electric railway passengers, which reached a new peak of 420,000 trips / day (+19% compared with the same period last year, it grew by 1% compared to the previous quarter) and general expenses, such as maintenance costs, fell. expressway that has been delayed until 2024, including weak electricity prices Meanwhile, profits fell mainly from the previous quarter. Because in the 3rd quarter of 2023 there was a total of 221 million baht in dividends from TTW.
Maintain a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of 10.40 baht based on SOTP, although the Orange Line project still has uncertainty due to legal cases. But such factors do not affect the forecast. He still believes that normal profits in 2024 will expand to a record level, including a catalyst from the Double Deck project and the contract to operate the South Purple Line in the second half of 2024.
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