Brokers are gradually cutting SET – EPS targets for 2024 post-budget – GDP for 2023 below market expectations. The new SET framework is expected to be at 1,470 – 1,600 points, while EPS has been cut to 91.5 – 92.1 baht / share. Keep an eye on this. Many other brokers are still reviewing the numbers. Expect many more cuts to follow. Most recommend a survival strategy of gradually building up stocks for a strong budget for 2024.
*** Company profit – GDP in 2023 lower than expected, leading to cuts in SET – EPS targets in 2024.
Securities company analysis (Securities Company) Dao (Thailand) It revealed that the 4th quarter operating results of 781 Thai listed companies (Co.) had a total net profit of about 164 billion baht, a decrease of 41% from the previous quarter. This level of net profit is considered to be lower than Bloomberg survey Expected up to 30%
The main factors that cause the operating results of Thai listed companies in the said period to be significantly lower than expected. It came from special items more than in other quarters and there was also a loss in oil stocks, despite the positive results of the strengthening baht. which looks at the overall picture This reflects that company profits in many industries are still weak. This has led to a gradual decline in listed company earnings (EPS) forecasts and the target of Thailand’s stock index framework at the end of 2024 as well.
By Analysis Securities Finance Cyrus It said it lowered the target of Thailand’s stock index at the end of 2024 to 1,470 points (originally 1,520 points) and reduced the profit of listed companies from the original by another 4% to 91.5 baht/share, growing 12.96% from the previous year .
This is reflected in the lower-than-expected growth rate of Thai GDP in 4Q23, with GDP growing 1.7% from the previous year but contracting 0.6% from the previous quarter, causing Thailand’s GDP in 2023 to expand by only 1.9% from the previous year, low .Better than the market expected to grow by 2.4% In addition, the profits of listed companies in 4Q23 are still growing only 7% from the previous year, lower than r expected growth of 14% from the previous year, due to pressure from the petrochemical and transport groups. , Energy, Banking, Packaging and Building Materials
as well as Analysis of Asia Plus Securities which said they lowered the SET Index target at the end of 2024 to no more than 1,600 points (originally not disclosed because the level was too high and not consistent with the situation), while EPS in 2024 was lowered to 92.1 baht/ share (originally 99.8 baht / share) increased by 13.7% from the previous year.
For the main factors of adjusting the said target numbers down This is as a result of the performance of listed companies in the 4th quarter of 2023 being weaker than originally expected. As well as GDP growth in 2023 below market expectations.
In addition, the results of a survey of Bloomberg Consensus also reveals that countries in Asia are at greater risk of recession. In particular, Thailand has increased the probability of recession to 30% (from 15%), which is considered a matter of concern . And it may mean that foreign investment funds (Flow of Funds) will not flow back in during this period.
*** Two other brokerages are reviewing the numbers. About to break the target.
“Wilasini Bunmasung Song” Director of Research Global Securities He said that from two profit factors of A listed companies Thailand’s GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2023 came out lower than the market expected, causing us to consider adjusting the Thai stock index and EPS target at the end of 2024 downwards.
“Currently, we maintain the SET target at the end of 2024 at a range of 1,373 – 1,569 points, but admittedly that is from the latest situation. This makes the upper limit we have estimated seem far from reality. Therefore, we will definitely have to lower our SET Index target.Meanwhile, our listed company’s profit is estimated at 98 baht per share, which our EPS forecast is usually in line with the latest Bloomberg Consensus. Bloomberg Consensus We have reduced the EPS of Thai stocks to 94 baht / share, but we would like to consider including all the numbers again. So the exact number can be determined.”Wilasini said.
corresponds to “Wiki Thirawanrat” Senior Director, Research Division Bualuang Securities and noted that there is a tendency to reduce the SET Index and EPS targets at the end of 2024 as well, in the process of reviewing the numbers at the moment. New figures are expected to be released this week.
*** Most recommend holding stocks for strong 2024 returns.
Finansia Securities Analysis He came back to say: Thailand’s economy has passed its lowest point. and ready to accelerate in 2024, with supporting factors from the private sector and tourism in good shape, and recovering exports. and reverse the government sector after approving the 2024 annual budget within March.
In this regard, the recent decline in SET has led to an increase on top of it. We believe that the index range of 1,350-1,360 points is still attractive for long-term investment. Because the index trades at a 2024 P/E of 15.1 times, which is lower than the pre-Covid-19 average of 15.7 times, making the investment strategy still focused on being selective by choosing stocks that with a strong earnings trend in 2024 and trading at a low PE/PBV Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, it is recommended AOT, BCH, CPALL, CPN, GPSC, MINT, NSL, SJWD a TIDLER
side Analysis of Asia Plus Securities Advise investors to avoid temporary index fluctuations. By investing in Real Sector stocks that have already published their financial statements for the 4th quarter of 2023 and are expected to gradually recover profits for the 1st quarter of 2024, such as SCCC, ADVANC, INTUCH, AOT, DRT, GULF, MINT, ITC, CPAXT, JMT, JMART, SCC, GPSC, IRPC a TOP etc.
part “Narongdet Chandrapaisarn” Director of the Securities Analysis Department AIRA Securities In conclusion, he said Thailand’s stock market in the short term is still limited. This is because the profits of many companies are not yet in a period of excellent growth. Makes the investment strategy recommend selected stocks whose operating performance has passed the lowest point, together with 2024 profits likely to be strong and together with internal consumption likely to recover well, recommended. CPALL, CPAXT, YOU, SAPPE a TKN etc.
#Brokers #gradually #cut #SET #profit #targets #companies #budget #GDP #expected
