CFR adjusts Taiwan Strait risk assessment and delays arms sales
- The evaluation follows a recent White House meeting between U.S.
- arms sales to Taiwan are expected to be delayed until near the end of Trump's term.
- According to intelligence gathered from Washington circles, several factors are driving this timeline.
The evaluation follows a recent White House meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both leaders' official communiqués omitted any mention of Taiwan.
Washington Policy Circles and Stalled Arms Sales
Ma noted that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are expected to be delayed until near the end of Trump's term.
According to intelligence gathered from Washington circles, several factors are driving this timeline. First, American military industrial production capacity remains constrained and cannot fully support immediate delivery. Second, a dense schedule of U.S.-China summits has created an environment where neither side wants to disrupt diplomatic discussions, leading to the temporary shelving of sensitive topics like Taiwan. Finally, policymakers recognize that shipping large quantities of weapons simultaneously would exceed Taiwan’s current short-term absorption capacity.
Ma emphasized that while arms sales face delays, the underlying policy framework will persist. He explained that as long as the U.S. defense establishment maintains its supportive stance and the administration seeks economic returns through foreign military sales, deliveries will continue. Washington will monitor Beijing’s pressure levels and adjust the military balance accordingly.
Shifting Risk Assessments on the Taiwan Strait
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has adjusted its risk assessment for the Taiwan Strait. The CFR Global Conflict Tracker currently categorizes confrontation over Taiwan as “Developing,” while estimating the risk’s impact on U.S. interests as “Critical.” Furthermore, CFR’s 2026 preventive priorities survey assigns an “Even Chance” probability to a severe cross-strait crisis driven by rising Chinese political, economic, and military pressure.
Ma pointed out that these indicators show the risk of an immediate armed conflict has eased, granting Taiwan additional time to prepare. The absence of references to Taiwan in the joint readouts from the Trump-Xi summit indicates that no new concessions or bilateral agreements were struck at Taiwan’s expense. Observers at the NCCU seminar, which was moderated by Center for International Relations head Wang Xinxiang and featured insights from Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research director Hsu Zhongci, NCCU deputy director Chen Zhijie, and NCCU assistant research fellow Tseng Weifeng, agreed that recent high-level diplomatic engagements have temporarily lowered immediate flashpoint pressures.