China Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Aims to Double Warheads by 2030, US Report Says
October 20, 2023 8:22 am
Image copyright: Getty Images
WASHINGTON – According to the annual China Military Power Report released by the US Department of Defense on Thursday (October 19), China has significantly increased its nuclear arsenal in the past year and currently possesses approximately 500 warheads. The report also reveals that the Chinese government aims to double its nuclear arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by the year 2030.
The report emphasizes that China will continue to adhere to its “no first strike” policy. However, despite the growth in China’s nuclear arsenal, it still lags behind both Russia and the United States in terms of quantity. The independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Russia’s nuclear arsenal to be around 5,889 warheads, with the United States possessing 5,244 warheads.
The US Department of Defense’s estimate puts China’s nuclear warhead count at approximately 400 for 2021. A senior official from the department stated, “We are not suggesting a significant deviation from projected numbers, but we anticipate their warhead count to exceed previous estimates.”
Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, who declared his ambition to build a “world-class army” by 2049, China has made significant efforts to modernize its military since assuming power in 2012. The Pentagon report released on Thursday states that China’s ongoing efforts to develop its nuclear capabilities will surpass all previous endeavors in terms of scale and complexity.
US officials also anticipate the completion of three new missile base clusters by China in 2022. These bases reportedly consist of at least 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. Intercontinental ballistic missiles have a range of over 5,500 kilometers.
According to the US report, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has been actively pursuing the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of threatening the US mainland, Alaska, and Hawaii with conventional strikes.
Nonetheless, the analysis report underscores that despite China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, the country remains committed to employing these weapons as a deterrence mechanism and pursuing counter-attacks in response to failed deterrence.
Image caption: The “Rocket Force” established by China uses missiles as its primary equipment.
Henry Boyd, senior fellow at the Henry Boyd International Institute for Strategic Studies, states that the reported growth rate does not appear to be particularly unusual. However, he acknowledges that China may be approaching its goal of reaching 1,000 warheads faster than estimated.
Furthermore, Lyle Morris, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, suggests that advancements in technologies like hypersonic missiles are prompting China to reassess its second-strike policy and consequently expand its warhead stockpile.
In addition, the Pentagon report highlights China’s recent escalation of “diplomatic, political, and military pressure” on Taiwan. Reports indicate that President Xi Jinping has requested the Minister of Defense to enhance military capabilities, aiming to regain control of Taiwan by 2027.
The Pentagon report reveals that China has ordered ballistic missiles to fly over Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwan’s airspace, and conducted numerous military exercises in the waters surrounding the island, all with the intention of destabilizing it.
This report comes at a time of strained Sino-US diplomatic relations. Washington recently accused Chinese air force pilots of engaging in hundreds of “forced and dangerous” maneuvers against US military aircraft in international airspace over the Pacific. The Pentagon provided evidence through released videos and photos and stated that these incidents have escalated since the fall of 2021.
Matt Murphy BBC News, Washington
October 20, 2023 8:22 am
image copyrightGetty Images
image caption,
Supersonic aircraft on display at the 2019 military parade in Beijing
The US Department of Defense released its annual China Military Power Report on Thursday (October 19) stating that China has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal in the past year and currently has around 500 warheads.
The report also said the Chinese government hopes to double its nuclear arsenal to more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.
However, the report noted that China will still adhere to the “no first strike” policy.
Although the report says that China’s nuclear arsenal has grown more than expected, it still pales in comparison to Russia and the United States.
Russia has a nuclear arsenal of about 5,889 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,244, according to the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The US Department of Defense estimates that China has around 400 nuclear warheads in 2021.
A senior US Department of Defense official told reporters, “We are not saying that (China’s) number of warheads will deviate significantly from expectations… but we are saying that their number of warheads is expected to be more than the previous projections.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will build a “world-class army” by 2049. Since taking power in 2012, he has worked hard to modernize China’s military.
A Pentagon report said Thursday that China’s current efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal “will dwarf past efforts in scale and complexity.”
US officials said the Chinese government is likely to complete the construction of three new missile base groups in 2022.
According to reports, these missile launch sites contain at least 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. Intercontinental ballistic missiles are ballistic missiles that have a range of more than 5,500 kilometers.
The US report believes that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has also been trying to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile to “enable China to threaten targets on the US mainland, Hawaii and Alaska with conventional strikes.”
The analysis report said that despite China’s growing nuclear arsenal, China remains “committed to a policy of ‘deterrence’ against enemy attack and ‘counter-attack’ when deterrence fails.”
image caption,
The “Rocket Force” established by China at the end of 2015 uses missiles as its main equipment.
Henry Boyd, a senior fellow at the Henry Boyd International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC that the reported rate of growth did not look “very unusual”.
But he believes China is moving toward its established goal of 1,000 warheads “a little faster than estimated.”
Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the BBC that the development of new technologies such as hypersonic missiles is prompting China to reconsider its second-strike policy, forcing it to expand its warhead stockpile.
The Pentagon report on Thursday also noted that Beijing has “increased diplomatic, political and military pressure” on Taiwan in recent months.
There are reports that Xi Jinping has ordered the Minister of Defense to strengthen military capabilities in order to force the reoccupation of Taiwan by 2027.
The Pentagon report added that China had ordered ballistic missiles to fly over Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwan’s airspace and conducted a series of military exercises around Taiwan’s waters in an effort to destabilize the island.
The result of this survey comes at a time when Sino-US diplomatic relations are at a low point.
On Wednesday, Washington accused Chinese air force pilots of conducting hundreds of “forced and dangerous” maneuvers against US military aircraft in international airspace over the Pacific.
The Pentagon released videos and photos of these exercises and said that 180 incidents have taken place since the fall of 2021.
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