China Export Drop: US Peak Season Freight Slows
- Typically, this is the time of year when shipments into the U.S.
- Imports from China have experienced three consecutive weeks of 27% year-over-year declines, according to data from Vizion.
- "Normally, we would expect a peak starting from the last week of September ahead of Golden Week," said Catherine Chien, chairwoman of global shipping and logistics company Dimerco...
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US-China Trade Slowdown: 2025 Holiday season Imports Lag
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What’s happening: A Slowdown in US-China Freight
Typically, this is the time of year when shipments into the U.S. are peaking ahead of the holidays. Though, 2025 is proving to be different. As Chinese exports continue to plunge, overall freight trade to the U.S.has slowed considerably.
Imports from China have experienced three consecutive weeks of 27% year-over-year declines, according to data from Vizion. Current ocean freight bookings data suggests that the customary late-september surge in freight containers is unlikely to materialize.
“Normally, we would expect a peak starting from the last week of September ahead of Golden Week,” said Catherine Chien, chairwoman of global shipping and logistics company Dimerco Express Group. Golden Week is a major holiday week in China during which many businesses are closed. “So far, there are no clear signs or major orders in the market indicating this trend,” she added.
Key Product Categories Affected
The top five product segments contributing to the reduction in Chinese exports to the U.S., as identified by Vizion’s data analysis, are:
- Furniture
- Toys and Sporting Equipment
- Electrical Devices and Components
- Machinery
- Plastic and Plastic Products
The toys category exemplifies the “flatlining” of trade between the U.S. and China. “Toys and sporting equipment are on trend with 2024, but in the most recent 10 weeks after the peak, it has trended flat at an average of 20% less volume compared to last year’s peak season,” stated Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion.
Exceptions and Ancient Context
While the overall trend is downward, some exceptions exist. Rubber and organic chemicals have maintained or slightly exceeded 2024 booking activity volume since May, a period marked by a freight container volume spike due to President trump’s short-term extensions of previously announced tariffs.
Previous years have also seen slowdowns in Chinese freight shipments ahead of Golden Week. In 2024, a frontloading period occurred due to the threat of port strikes in the U.S. In 2023, fears of reduced consumer demand led to lower-than-usual shipping activity.
However,this year’s situation is unique.Its a combination of the early peak season frontloading driven by the trade war and a subsequent, sustained decrease in orders to a more moderate level.