Tien and Cilic Set to Clash in First Round of Dallas Open
– Learner Tien and Marin Cilic will face off in the first round of the Dallas Open at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas. The match pits the rising talent of the 20-year-old Tien against the seasoned experience of the 37-year-old Cilic.
Tien, currently closing in on the top 20 in the world rankings, arrives in Dallas on the back of a strong finish to 2025 and a notable performance at the Australian Open. He won four matches consecutively at the Australian Open, including a significant victory over former world number one Daniil Medvedev, before falling to Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals. Prior to that, he secured his first title and the NextGen Finals title.
Cilic, a 2018 Australian Open finalist, demonstrated his continued competitiveness at this year’s tournament, reaching the third round with wins including a strong showing against Denis Shapovalov. His run ultimately ended against Casper Ruud. Despite his age, Cilic remains safely inside the top 80 in the world rankings.
According to Dimers, Learner Tien is projected as the most likely winner of the match, based on updated simulation results. Their model gives Tien a 59% chance of defeating Cilic. The same model suggests Tien has a 57% chance of winning the first set.
Betting odds, as of , reflect this assessment. Tien is currently favored at -227 on the moneyline, while Cilic is at +193. For those interested in set betting, Tien is at -189 to win the first set, with Cilic at +150.
The match is scheduled to be played on an indoor hard court surface. Fans in the UK can watch the match on Sky Sports Tennis and Sky Go, while viewers in the USA can tune in to the Tennis Channel and Tennis Channel online.
According to Sportsbook Wire, based on implied probability from the moneyline, Cilic has a 67.7% chance to win. Cilic’s odds to win the tournament are +3300, while Tien’s are +1100.
Cilic has a 10-10 record on hard courts over the last 12 months, winning 81.6% of his service games and 20.6% of his return games. He has converted 34 of 99 break points on hard courts over the past year (34.3%). In his last tournament, the Australian Open, he lost to Casper Ruud in four sets.
Tien has a 35-15 record on hard courts over the last 12 months, winning two tournaments on that surface. He has won 76.5% of his service games and 31.8% of his return games. He has converted 163 of 358 break points on hard courts (45.5%), ranking him fourth in that category. In the quarterfinal of the Australian Open, he was defeated by Alexander Zverev in four sets.
Dimers’ model also projects a 53% chance of Cilic covering a +3.5 games spread, and a 52% chance of the match staying under 22.5 total games.
While Cilic’s experience and recent form at the Australian Open demonstrate he remains a competitive player, the prevailing analysis suggests Tien’s upward trajectory and recent successes make him the decisive favorite in this first-round matchup.
