COVID, Omicron strain, disrupt the world Guru Tisco suggests that the stock market may drop 15-20% | TISCO Bank Public Company Limited

Nov 30, 64 – TISCO Center for Economic Analysis and Investment Strategy assesses 2 cases of COVID-19, the Omicron species (Omicron) outbreak, indicating that in the worst case, global stocks are prepared to fall 15-20%. Opportunity to increase (Upside) from the current 2-3%. Expect bad news to pressure the market in the next 2-3 weeks.

Komsorn Prakobphol, Head of the TISCO Economic and Strategy Analysis Center (Mr.Komsorn Prakobphol, Head of Economic Strategy Unit, TISCO Economic Strategy Unit: TISCO ESU), revealed that after many countries began to experience COVID-19 cases, Omicron, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has speculated as a breed of concern. It may be more propagating than the Delta species and has become a staple in many parts of Africa. They may also have the ability to evade immunity from existing vaccines.

However, at the time it was not yet clear how to control or manage this new strain of COVID-19. It is expected that each country will have to implement preventative policies with strict restrictions on travel in and out of the country. As for the economic impact TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center does not have enough information to assess the damage. However, preliminary estimates of the epidemic of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 virus have been identified in 2 cases: 1. Best Case Scenario and 2. Worst Case Scenario.

In the case of severe impact, if Omicron is 2 times more effective than Delta and the existing vaccine is unable to stop the outbreak. If this is the case, the world may face an epidemic as severe as the Alpha strain of COVID-19 during the time there is no vaccine, so what will happen is that many countries may have to return to strict lockdown measures. time Because the number of patients will continue to increase. until the hospital can’t take it

“Furthermore, with this lockdown, the governments and central banks of each country are starting to have restrictions on stimulating the economy. Due to high inflation at present In addition, the supply chain system will be affected by the effect of the lockdown, causing inflation to remain stable at a high level. Even if consumption demand (Demand) is reduced, if it is predicted that the Omicron epidemic severely TISCO Center for Economic Analysis and Strategy forecasts that global stock markets have a chance of a 15-20% drop from the present,” Komsorn said.

On the other hand, the Best Case Scenario by the Omicron strain of COVID–19 is not as scary as it is concerned. The stock market may rise (Rebound) back to the level before the news. Or there is a chance to increase about 2-3% only

Mr. Komsorn also said that It can be seen that the chance of global stocks going down (Downside) is still much more likely to rise (Upside). Therefore, TISCO Center for Economic Analysis and Strategy estimates that The stock market at current levels does not adequately reflect the risks of this issue. and likely to continue to be under pressure while waiting for clarity This is expected to take at least 2-3 weeks.