Source: Daotong Futures Author: Daotong Futures
The subject of the research report
1. Market conditions
The market expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain a larger interest rate hike, and concerns about the economic outlook remain, and international oil prices fell. NYMEX crude oil futures 10 contract 84.45 fell $1.28/barrel or 1.50%; ICE Brent contract 11 contract 90.62 fell $1.38/barrel or 1.50%.
2. Today’s News
1. Japan’s core inflation rate hit an eight-year high of 2.8% in August amid a weak yen. Energy prices rose 16.9% year-on-year in August, accelerating from a 16.2% increase in July, while electricity prices rose 21.5% from 19.6% in July.
2. Strikes are expected at several UK ports in the coming weeks, with a strike at the Port of Liverpool underway and coming into effect at the Port of Felixstowe next week. Delays and disruptions to the UK supply chain are inevitable.
3. The strong demand for VLCC tankers and the surge in crude oil cargo from various export regions The Platts Benchmark for the Persian Gulf to China route on September 19 was 270,000 tonnes at w100, equivalent to $20.62 per tonne.
4. Saudi Aramco CEO, ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will do little to reverse the energy crisis, with global investment in oil and gas more than halving between 2014 and 2021, from $700 billion to just over $300 billion.
5. Germany’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said on September 20 that Germany’s natural gas storage facilities are now more than 90% full, as Germany struggles to prepare for the coming winter.
6. Iran has agreed to supply 600,000 tonnes (3.87 million barrels) of fuel oil to Lebanon over five months to help ease the worsening fuel shortage that has led to rolling blackouts across the country.
3. Fundamental Analysis
Saudi Aramco CEO: The real cause of energy insecurity is insufficient investment in oil and gas, no ready alternatives, and no contingency plans. The September supply-side OPEC report shows that the production capacity of small and medium-sized oil-producing countries is still tight, and the cumulative output gap has reached a new high.
And recently, Saudi Arabia said that if Iranian crude oil returns to the market or if oil prices fall further, it may increase production cuts to support oil prices. According to a report released by Argus Media, one of OPEC’s official data suppliers, OPEC+ oil production in August was below the target level, with a record output gap of 3.58 million barrels per day.
There is no new progress on the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Iran issue. The new round of OPEC+ meetings will wait until the beginning of October, and there will be no new statements in the near future; on the demand side, a new round of Fed meetings is approaching this week, and there is a high probability that the increase will remain high. The pressure on the economic outlook continues, and the market’s confidence in the economy global will still be insufficient in the near future.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: Hopes for a full resumption of the Iran nuclear deal have not faded, and Iran remains ready to cooperate constructively with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Foreign media reported Tuesday that Biden administration officials discussed adding to the SPR when crude prices fell below $80 a barrel, with the goal of protecting US oil production growth and preventing oil prices from plunging.
“It is incorrect to say that we are currently considering supplementing the SPR when oil prices fall below $80, and the Department of Energy proposed a methodology for supplementing the SPR several months ago that contained no proposals driving prices,” said Charisma Troiano, spokeswoman for the Department of Energy.
The US Department of Labor said in a brief statement Thursday morning that railroad companies, union negotiators and the Department of Labor had reached a temporary labor agreement that averted a railroad strike. The strike was expected to begin on Friday, September 16. The ICIS petrochemical index fell 10.6% month-on-month in August, with petrochemical andplasticPrices fell in all regions.
North East Asia fell the most, down 10.7% for the month. Seven of the 11 major Asian refining and trading companies surveyed by S&P said they expected the price cap to be around $48/barrel to $55/barrel.
4. A brief description of the views
International oil prices fluctuated weakly. Strikes are expected at several UK ports in the coming weeks, with a strike at the Port of Liverpool underway and coming into effect at the Port of Felixstowe next week. Delays and disruptions to the UK supply chain are inevitable.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: Hopes for a full resumption of the Iran nuclear deal have not faded, and Iran remains ready to cooperate constructively with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The US Department of Labor said in a brief statement Thursday morning that railroad companies, union negotiators and the Department of Labor had reached a temporary labor agreement that averted a railroad strike. The operation idea is mainly based on high and weak volatility, pay attention to take profit and stop loss.
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