Havana, Cuba – – Cuba is facing a deepening energy crisis and growing national security concerns as the United States pursues a policy of restricting oil supplies to the island nation, creating opportunities for strategic rivals China and Russia to expand their influence. The situation, described by analysts as a confluence of economic hardship and geopolitical maneuvering, is raising anxieties both within Cuba and among U.S. Policymakers.
The current crisis stems from a series of actions taken by the Trump administration, beginning with an Executive Order in imposing tariffs on countries that continue to supply oil to Cuba. This followed the earlier cessation of oil shipments from Venezuela and, more recently, a halt to supplies from Mexico, which had become Cuba’s primary oil provider, shipping nearly 20,000 barrels per day as of September 2025. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the halt in late January, reportedly under pressure from Washington.
The reduction in oil imports – falling from approximately 7,000 barrels per day – has left Cuba without consistent access to oil for the first time in years, exacerbating existing problems with aging thermoelectric plants that currently operate at just 34 percent capacity. Frequent power outages are now a daily occurrence, impacting all sectors of Cuban society and prompting warnings from Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel about further hardships.
However, the energy crisis is not solely an economic issue. U.S. Officials are increasingly concerned about the strategic implications of Cuba’s vulnerability, particularly the opportunities it presents for China and Russia to enhance their intelligence-gathering capabilities. The island’s proximity to the United States – just 90 miles from Florida – makes it an attractive location for monitoring U.S. Military installations, and communications.
China’s presence in Cuba has been steadily growing, particularly in the telecommunications sector. Satellite imagery has identified at least four Chinese-linked signals intelligence facilities across the island, including sites at Bejucal, Wajay, and Calabazar near Havana, and a newly constructed site at El Salao near Santiago de Cuba. These facilities are equipped with technology capable of intercepting communications and tracking signals over vast distances – up to 9,300 miles, according to some estimates.
Chinese firms, notably Huawei and ZTE, are positioning themselves as key providers of telecommunications infrastructure, filling a gap created by Cuba’s outdated Soviet-era equipment and chronic power failures. This provides Beijing with access to Cuban government communications and infrastructure systems. The El Salao site, featuring a circularly disposed antenna array, is particularly effective at determining the origin and direction of incoming high-frequency signals.
Russia is also deepening its ties with Cuba, leveraging the energy crisis to expand its military cooperation. A military cooperation agreement signed in March 2025 was ratified by Russian lawmakers in October of the same year. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that between 6,000 and 7,000 Cubans are currently fighting as mercenaries in Russia’s war against Ukraine, representing the second-largest foreign contingent after North Korea.
Russian intelligence activities are reportedly embedded within ostensibly civilian infrastructure projects, with Russian engineers providing maintenance and upgrades to Cuban power grids and radar systems. Increased naval port calls by Russian vessels in Havana are also facilitating the rotation of intelligence personnel.
The U.S. Government’s strategy of restricting oil supplies to Cuba is a calculated gamble, aiming to exploit the regime’s economic desperation. However, some analysts question whether this approach will ultimately achieve its desired outcome, arguing that it may simply drive Cuba further into the arms of China and Russia.
“Although U.S. Economic coercion…could facilitate a deal in which Cuba promises to reduce its Cuban or Russian presence, Cuba will promise to comply to the degree that it can without truly breaking those ties to China and Russia, which for it are both ideological allies and partners in its survival,” stated Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.
The potential implications for U.S. National security are significant. The intelligence collection capabilities being established by China and Russia in Cuba could provide them with valuable insights into U.S. Military operations, communications, and technology. The proximity of Cuba to key U.S. Military installations, including MacDill Air Force Base and Naval Station Mayport, further amplifies these concerns.
The situation remains fluid, and the long-term consequences of the U.S. Policy and the growing Chinese and Russian presence in Cuba are yet to be seen. The crisis underscores the complex interplay between economic pressure, geopolitical competition, and national security interests in the Caribbean region.
