Davos 2024: Why Institutions Crumble – Mark Carney & Václav Havel

The post-war global order, long predicated on rules-based cooperation, is undergoing a fundamental shift. This assessment, delivered by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in a January 20, 2026 address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, wasn’t a lament for a bygone era, but a call for pragmatic action by middle powers to shape the emerging landscape. Carney’s speech, remarkably, didn’t focus on economic indicators or geopolitical strategy in the traditional sense. Instead, he drew a powerful analogy from the work of Czech dissident Václav Havel, arguing that the erosion of order begins not with overt power plays, but with a quiet abandonment of belief in the system itself.

Carney’s central argument, as he presented it in Davos, is that the era of unconstrained great power competition is upon us. The assumption that international relations would be governed by established norms – respect for human rights, sustainable development, sovereignty, and territorial integrity – is rapidly dissolving. He articulated a sentiment echoing the Thucydides trap, the observation that when a rising power threatens to displace a dominant one, conflict is often inevitable. However, unlike a purely deterministic view of international relations, Carney posited that middle powers are not simply bystanders in this unfolding drama.

The core of Carney’s message lies in Havel’s 1978 essay, “The Power of the Powerless.” Havel explored how seemingly totalitarian regimes maintain control not through brute force alone, but through the willing participation of individuals in upholding the illusion of legitimacy. He used the example of a greengrocer who displays a sign proclaiming “Workers of the world unite!” not out of genuine conviction, but to avoid trouble and conform to expectations. This act, repeated across society, reinforces the system, even if no one truly believes in it. Carney suggests a parallel exists today: a growing tendency for nations to “go along to get along,” to accommodate powerful actors in the hope of securing their own safety. He argues, however, that this strategy is ultimately self-defeating.

The implications for Canada, and other middle powers, are significant. Carney’s speech wasn’t a call for confrontation, but for a re-evaluation of strategy. He advocates for a proactive approach to building a new order grounded in shared values. This isn’t about challenging great powers directly, but about creating alternative frameworks and strengthening alliances based on principles rather than expediency. The speech, as reported by CBC News, emphasized the importance of “honesty” – a clear-eyed assessment of the geopolitical realities and a refusal to participate in the legitimization of a crumbling order.

This perspective resonates with a broader concern about the future of the rules-based international order. As noted in Responsible Statecraft, both Carney and former U.S. President Donald Trump, in separate addresses at Davos, signaled the end of that order. While their motivations and proposed solutions differ dramatically, the shared diagnosis is striking. Trump’s approach, characterized by unilateralism and skepticism towards international institutions, represents a direct assault on the existing system. Carney, conversely, advocates for a more nuanced strategy – strengthening the foundations of a new order from within, through collaboration and a commitment to shared values.

The Guardian’s coverage of the speech highlights Carney’s call to action, framing it as a response to the perceived threat posed by Trump’s worldview. The Canadian Prime Minister’s emphasis on values like human rights and sustainable development positions Canada as a potential leader in shaping a more equitable and sustainable global order. However, the practical challenges of translating these principles into concrete policies remain substantial.

The speech has sparked debate about the role of middle powers in a multipolar world. Some analysts, as reported by Redd-Monitor, have questioned the sincerity of Carney’s message, given his past involvement with institutions like the World Economic Forum and his advocacy for carbon markets. These criticisms underscore the inherent complexities of navigating a world where economic interests and political ideals often clash. Nevertheless, the core message – that the erosion of belief in the existing order is a critical threat, and that middle powers have a responsibility to act – remains compelling.

Carney’s invocation of Havel’s work is particularly insightful. It suggests that rebuilding trust in international institutions and norms requires more than just policy changes; it demands a fundamental shift in mindset. It requires nations to actively challenge the prevailing cynicism and to demonstrate a genuine commitment to the values they espouse. The Canadian Prime Minister’s speech, isn’t simply a geopolitical analysis; it’s a philosophical call to arms – a plea to “take down the greengrocer’s sign” and begin building a new order based on conviction rather than conformity.

The speech’s impact will likely be felt beyond the halls of Davos. It provides a framework for understanding the current geopolitical landscape and offers a potential roadmap for middle powers seeking to navigate a world increasingly defined by great power rivalry. Whether Canada, and others, will be able to translate this vision into reality remains to be seen, but Carney’s address has undoubtedly injected a new sense of urgency and purpose into the debate about the future of the global order.