Source: Ruida Futures Author: Ruida Futures
Research report text
This week (February 24)RebarFutures prices continued to rebound. Due to the increasing trend of furnace charges, the increase in steelmaking costs, and the continuous release of superimposed terminal demand, the fourth round of resumption of work and the availability of labor services has exceeded the same period in the lunar calendar last year. leading areas are East China and Central China, which support the gradual increase in rebar futures prices.
Market forecast:On the supply side, the weekly production of rebar in this period continues to rise, and the growth rate has expanded The weekly capacity utilization rate has increased to around 62%, and the supply in the market is expected to the future continues to increase; The domestic inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, with the increase in the resumption of work downstream, demand is expected to increase further. In terms of execution, it is suggested that the RB2305 contract should be called back to do more, and the stop loss should refer to 4100.
【Futures and random market conditions】
Futures prices continued to rebound this week:
This week, the RB2305 contract continued to rebound.
This week, the trend of the RB2305 contract was weaker than the trend of the RB2310 contract. The price difference on the 24th was 60 yuan/tonne, which is -5 yuan/tonne week-on-week.
Rebar warehouse receipts fell this week, and the headroom of the top 20 positions fell:
On February 24, Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipts were 52,464 tonnes, a week-on-week ratio of -22,235 tonnes.
On February 24, the net positions of the top 20 rebar futures contracts were 51,742 contracts, a decrease of 40,113 contracts from the previous week.
Prices picked up randomly this week and the strength of the basis strengthened:
On February 24, the Shanghai 20mmHRB400 third-grade rebar spot price (reasonable calculation) was 4260 yuan/ton, which was +80 yuan/ton week-on-week; the national average price was 4344 yuan/tonne, which is + 56 yuan/tonne week-on-week.
This week, the rebar spot price is stronger than the future price. The current basis on the 24th is 36 yuan/tonne, which is +23 yuan/tonne week to week.
【Upstream market situation】
Oven of the weekiron oreA stone place was raised,cokeSpot prices are flat:
On 24 February, 61% Australian Mac ore powder at Qingdao Port was reported at 987 yuan / dry ton, a week-on-week ratio of +40 yuan / dry ton.
As of 24 February, the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at the Tianjin Port was 2,910 yuan/tonne, +0 yuan/tonne week-on-week.
This week, total iron ore shipments from Australia and Pakistan increased, and port inventories increased:
According to the statistics, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil in this period was 23.032 million tons, an increase of 4.523 million tons from the previous month.
On February 24, according to statistics, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 14,223.26, an increase of 112.54 from the previous month; the average daily port volume was 319.29, an increase of 4.88. In terms of weight, the Australian mine 6608.03
It fell 10.68, the Brazilian mine increased 4995.90 97.64; trade mine increased 8300.97 50.71. (Unit: 10,000 tons)
This week, the coking plant’s capacity utilization rate was raised, and inventory decreased:
This week, according to the statistics of the full sample of independent coke enterprises: the capacity utilization rate was 72.6%, an increase of 0.2%;coking coalTotal inventory increased 10.6 to 969.5, and coking coal usable days increased 0.1 day to 10.9 days.
【Industry situation】
On the supply side – crude steel production increased month-on-month in December:
According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, China’s crude steel output was 77.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; from January to December, China’s crude steel output was 1,013 million tons, per year. -a reduction on a year of 2.1%.
According to customs statistics, China exported 5.401 million tons of steel in December 2022, a decrease of 189,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; the cumulative export of steel products from January to December was 67.323 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In December, China imported 700,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 52,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 6.9% from the previous month, and a decrease of 30.1% from the same period last year; the cumulative imports from January to December
Steel products were 10.566 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%.
On the supply side – the operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills has been raised:
On 24 February, according to the survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.98%, an increase of 1.44% since last week, and an increase of 7.54% since last year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.97%, an increase of 1.22% from the previous month, and an increase of 9.36% from the same period last year.
As of February 23, the weekly output of rebar in 139 building materials manufacturers nationwide was 2.8217 million tons, an increase of 188,200 tons from last week and an increase of 86,200 tons from the same period last year.
On the supply side – the operating rate of electric furnace steel has increased:
As of February 24, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 64.91%, a month-on-month increase of 3.94% and a year-on-year increase of 9.83%. Among them, the Central China and North China regions rose sharply, the East China, South China and Southwest regions rose slightly, and the rest of the regions remained basically the same.
According to statistics, between February 20th and February 23rd, the national construction materials transaction volume was 681,100 tons, and the transaction volume continued to rise.
Supply side – both factory inventory and social inventory decrease and increase:
On February 23, according to the monitoring of 139 building materials manufacturers nationwide, the inventory of rebar factories was 3.373 million tons, a decrease of 153,300 tons from last week and an increase of 165,900 tons from the same period the last year.
According to the statistics, on February 23, the construction steel warehouses in 35 major cities across the country were 9.1594 million tons, an increase of 38,200 tons from last week and a decrease of 493,400 tons from the same period last year.
【Downstream situation】
On the demand side – the number of new housing starts fell by 39.4% year on year, and investment in infrastructure increased year on year9.4%:
In 2022, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises will be 9,049.99 million square meters, a decrease of 7.2% over the previous year. The area of newly started housing was 1,205.87 million square meters, a decrease of 39.4%. The area of completed houses was 862.22 million square meters, a decrease of 15.0%.
Between January and December 2022, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) increased by 9.4% over the previous year. Among them, the investment in the water conservation management industry increased by 13.6%, the investment in the public facilities management industry increased by 10.1%, the investment in road transportation industry increased by 3.7%, and the investment in the railway transportation industry increased by 1.8%.
【Options Market】
To buy a shallow out-of-the-money call option:
With the gradual release of final demand, demand for performance has rebounded significantly, and there is still the possibility of a rebound after the short-term steel price adjustment. Actively, it is recommended to buy shallow out-of-the-money call options.
【The stock market】
The steel sector index continued to move higher:
Supported by policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, steel mill profits can be expected, so steel and coal stocks are still worth buying. Shagang, Nangang, Shanxi Coking, and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended.
Sina statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its opinion or confirming its description. The content of the article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
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