Diabetes Care Costs to Impact Global Economy by Trillions by 2050

A comprehensive analysis of 204 countries and territories indicates that diabetes mellitus is imposing a substantial and rising economic burden on the global economy, with projected costs reaching trillions of dollars by 2050.

According to a study published in Nature, the economic impact of diabetes between 2020 and 2050 is estimated at $10.2 trillion in 2017 international dollars (INT$). This figure, which excludes informal care, represents approximately 0.22% of the annual global gross domestic product.

The Impact of Informal Caregiving

The economic burden increases significantly when informal caregiving costs are factored into the model. When including informal care, the global burden is estimated to rise to INT$78.8 trillion.

Depending on the assumptions used for care, the total cost could range from INT$5.5 trillion to as high as INT$152.1 trillion. Some estimates suggest this could represent up to 1.7% of global GDP.

Drivers of the Economic Burden

The study identifies diabetes mellitus as one of the top ten drivers of the growing global health burden over the last 30 years. This trend is propelled by aging populations and an increase in environmental and behavioral risk factors, specifically obesity and air pollution.

The macroeconomic model used for these estimates incorporates several key factors contributing to the financial loss:

• Losses in effective labor supply resulting from morbidity and mortality.
• The diversion of resources toward treatment.
• Costs associated with informal caregiving.

Global Distribution and Prevalence

The economic impact of the disease is distributed unevenly across the globe. The highest absolute costs are found in India, China and the United States.

However, the relative and per capita burdens are most severe in countries such as Australia and American Samoa.

In terms of prevalence, data from 2021 shows that more than one in ten adults worldwide had diabetes mellitus, totaling 537 million people. More than three-quarters of these individuals lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Research Methodology and Scope

The findings are based on a health-augmented macroeconomic model. The research was conducted by a multidisciplinary team including contributors from the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The study emphasizes the urgent need for effective global interventions to address the gaps in diabetes care and mitigate the resulting macroeconomic strain.