Dollar Poll Predictions: Interest Rates & Exchange Rate Expectations

Since the last exchange rate, at the end of June, was unleashed, The government failed to stop the wave of distrust of the economic program. What he did was try to stop water with increasingly extreme defensive measures, such as the increase in interest rates to the 70 percent or record interventions in the dollar futures market.

Next Monday there will be Another out -of -program debt tenderconvened urgently by Luis Caputo to try to absorb the 6 billion non -renewed pesos in the last placement, last Wednesday. The fear is that those weights go to the dollarnot to credit to companies and consumption, as should happen if things had worked as the minister imagined. The Government sold that for this height you would enjoy a thriving V recovery, but what there is is a sea of doubts.

The exorbitant increase of interest rates is unsustainable for the real economywhich was already punished by the increase in rates, the fall in sales and increasingly aggressive competition of imported products. The more than the cost of indebtedness from one month to another were doubled: passed from 34,7 percent thirty days ago to 80,9 percent annual on August 13, according to data from the Central Bank for advances in current account. People who cannot pay the total credit card, refinance the balance costs them 210 percent annual, when wages rise to 1 or al 2 percent monthly. It doesn’t close anyone.

In the City it is said that if in Buenos Aires elections, in three weeks, The government does not draw a draw or a defeat for less than 3 pointswill not be able to prevent the current of disreparation towards the planning plan to end up carrying the value of the dollar to the ceiling of the exchange band, around 1475 pesos, and the Central Bank to have to intervene directly with the sale of dollars of the reserves so that the currency does not exceed that roof before the October elections.

Javier Milei, Federico Sturzenegger and Caputo try a political gambeta to transfer the cost of their failed to the opposition, but if things were as well as they affirm, if there is the macroeconomic order that they proclaim and if the program were really solid, there would be nothing to fear. However, In just four months since the IMF began to disburse another extraordinary creditfirst with 12 billion dollars and two weeks ago with another turn of 2 billion, The rates are burning and the real economy becomes dehydrated.

Wig risk

According to the official rhetoric, the consolidation of the economic program and the elimination of “Kuka Risk” will be a reality if the ruling wins the September and October elections, explains the PXQ consultant in her analysis of the latest monetary events. In that case, it develops, a Trust current among investors that will cause a remarkable increase in foreign direct investment. Those will be the dollars for the rescue.

“That excess supply of dollars, in a context of free exchange of exchange (real, clarifies), will allow the dollar to converge to the band’s floor, that ends with inflation and gatille a process of economic growth with improvement of the income of the majority of the population,” the ambitious route lists Emmanuel Álvarez Agis. That is the government’s expectationhe remarks, and remembers several other situations of the libertarian experience in which Expectations and reality occurred.

“This commitment is compatible with the action of monetary-chamber policy that was observed in the last wheels, with a BCRA that sells future dollar to March, April and May of 2026, in Tandem with the statements of Minister Caputo about that no change of the scheme of Bands Post Elections should be expected,” he says. That is to say, They play all or nothing.

“If the hypothesis of the libertarian rhetoric was demonstrated incorrect and the rain of investments did not appear after an electoral victory, An exchange rate correction may not anchor and have a high transfer at prices, “he warns. That is the wig riskanother exchange jump with high inflation, due to the inconsistencies of the current program, beyond the electoral result.

Breach dinner

Looking ahead to the medium term, Argentina faces a promising future on the external front, contextualizes the document. The continuity in the progress of Vaca Muerta and the beginning of investments in traditional mining and lithium allow to predict a cheap dollar, he points out. “The problem is when and how much of that statement,” he says, by pointing out the contrast to the short -term emergencies and the difficulty in assembling such a long bridge.

“What is certain is that If Argentina does not accumulate reservations, the country’s risk is not low and the debt is not refinedthe necessary commercial surplus to pay capital and interest in sovereign debt It is not compatible with this real exchange rate level“, alert. Consequently, a more expensive dollar will be necessary.

“In 2024 Argentina had exports for almost 80,000 million dollars and imports for 61,000 million, with a commercial surplus of 19,000 million. Fuels contributed almost 10,000 million; mining, 9,000 million, and the countryside, 34,000 million,” he says. By 2030, projects, Vaca Muerta could generate 30,000 million, and mining, 18,000 million. This additional income would allow access to financing to cover the capital of the sovereign debt and face interest without pressing on the exchange rate. The main problem, it concludes, is that the account gives to assume imports for 78,000 million dollars, which is the current level.

Therefore, “either President Milei is right and direct foreign investment will hit a substantive leap after election, or Argentina is having breakfast dinner“.